2175 Chevelon Rd · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 791 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1968 6,661 sqft lot $214/sqft · 32% below area Est $247k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your cozy mountain haven nestled deep within the cool, towering pines of Overgaard. This 1970s vintage cabin perfectly blends rustic charm with modern comfort, serving as the ultimate basecamp for hunters, fishermen, and outdoor enthusiasts. This charming 2BR/1BA cabin layout features a spacious living area designed for flexible guest accommodations. Whether you are seeking a high-performing short-term rental or a private sanctuary, this turn-key retreat delivers the quintessential Arizona mountain experience.

Key facts

• 6,661 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $169k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,183
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -31.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2979 Western Star Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	768 (-3%)	3mo	$295,000	$384	88
2158 Fishermans Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	850 (+8%)	11mo	$240,500	$283	70
2145 Fishermans Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	877 (+11%)	3mo	$245,000	$279	67
2143 Cottontail Rd	0.29mi	2/1.5	883 (+12%)	2mo	$200,000	$227	63
2136 Wildflower Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	708 (-10%)	1mo	$285,000	$403	59
2124 Forest Park Dr	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	792 (+0%)	11mo	$283,000	$357	58
2882 Center Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0	756 (-4%)	19mo	$188,000	$249	55
2148 Northwoods Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	891 (+13%)	20mo	$295,000	$331	49
2961 Lone Star Dr	0.21mi	1/1.0 (-1)	875 (+11%)	23mo	$199,000	$227	49
3058 Aspen Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0	864 (+9%)	19mo	$292,500	$339	45
2872 Mustang Trl	0.72mi	2/2.0	866 (+10%)	9mo	$339,000	$391	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,593
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $12,191
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $313	+0% $265	+5% $217	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $201	+0% $265	+5% $328	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $308	base $265	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $169,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $179,000 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Welcome to your cozy mountain haven nestled deep within the cool, towering pines of Overgaard. This 1970s vintage cabin perfectly blends rustic charm with modern comfort, serving as the ultimate basecamp for hunters, fishermen, and outdoor enthusiasts. This charming 2BR/1BA cabin layout features a spacious living area designed for flexible guest accommodations. Whether you are seeking a high-performing short-term rental or a private sanctuary, this turn-key retreat delivers the quintessential Arizona mountain experience.

19. 2026-04-04
    listed $200,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Welcome to your cozy mountain haven nestled deep within the cool, towering pines of Overgaard. This 1970s vintage cabin perfectly blends rustic charm with modern comfort, serving as the ultimate basecamp for hunters, fishermen, and outdoor enthusiasts. This charming 2BR/1BA cabin layout features a spacious living area designed for flexible guest accommodations. Whether you are seeking a high-performing short-term rental or a private sanctuary, this turn-key retreat delivers the quintessential Arizona mountain experience.

20. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus $68,000
21. 2010-11-15
    historical
22. 2010-03-31
    listed $60,000
23. 2006-06-21
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 85.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+225.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-03-31 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2006-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $600 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.