6253 Balmy Ln · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$127,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1983 3,600 sqft lot Est $116k · 10% over $140/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wecome to County Aire Village 55+ Community with Ownership and LOW HOA (140.00 monthly) includes internet, cable, water, sewer, and amenaties. Florida living at its best with an Active Living community. Enjoy concerts at the 5 Acre lot on the week-ends. This Double Wide boast space with LARGE rooms. You enter the home off the carport to the Bonus room which is open to the Combo Dining room/Living Room. The floor plan has a split bedroom set up. The Bedroom in the rear of the home has its own ensuite bathroom with a Huge soaking tub and shower as well as a walk in closet. Through the dining room is the kitchen with a quaint breakfast nook for two. Lots of cabinets and two pantry's for plenty

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Bonus room
• Huge soaking tub

Tags

• 5 ACRE LOT
• BONUS ROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• HUGE SOAKING TUB
• WALK IN CLOSET
• QUAINT BREAKFAST NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $140; total annual fees $1,680; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Bonnie) with required association approval; Monthly HOA fee $140 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, management, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, water); Community amenities: clubhouse, laundry, park, pickleball courts, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub, storage, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; limits apply, max pet weight 35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.08-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 7.7% in Zephyrhills North — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $128k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,920
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6252 Friendship Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	4mo	$120,000	$96	69
39020 Kirkland Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+7%)	3mo	$100,000	$85	68
6246 Midland St	0.44mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	4mo	$101,000	$105	54
39115 Ola Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	1mo	$120,000	$125	53
6233 Ohio St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+4%)	13mo	$120,000	$104	52
39652 Elgin Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	10mo	$143,000	$149	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,845
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,549
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $520/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.31mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.32mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	17d	1	0.53mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	0.63mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	0.72mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.74mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	0.75mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.76mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.76mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.79mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	0.84mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	0.84mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.97mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	14d	1	1.01mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.04mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	20d	1	1.06mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	4d	1	1.11mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.11mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	12d	1	1.27mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	4d	1	1.38mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	17d	1	1.38mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.41mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.47mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	1.48mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcable

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $127,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $520 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$538/yr (+$45/mo · 103.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$520
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $2,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$565
• After-tax cash flow: $3,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+183.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $127,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $520 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.