107 Willard Ave · East Herkimer, NY 13350

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1940 0.29 ac lot $76/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity or fixer-upper with incredible potential! This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is ready for your vision and finishing touches. Featuring a two-stall attached garage, durable metal roof, and a cozy fireplace, the bones are here to create something special. The layout offers plenty of room to reimagine, while the kitchen includes a dishwasher for added convenience. Step outside to a large backyard—perfect for entertaining, expansion, or creating your own private retreat. Affordably priced and full of possibilities, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Don’t miss your chance to bring this home back to life!

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Large backyard
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• TWO-STALL ATTACHED GARAGE
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Two-story wood-sided house; Existing property condition
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot with city street frontage (85 x 147)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on second floor)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herkimer Elementary School (math 51% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 517 students, 71% FRL); Herkimer High School (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 579 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.96%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,593
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -56.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Willard St	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,112 (+7%)	2mo	$113,300	$102	82
5585 State Route 5	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+11%)	7mo	$126,660	$110	42
181 Folts Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	983 (-6%)	15mo	$174,000	$177	40
150 Folts Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+14%)	10mo	$184,000	$155	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $63,049
• Equity at exit: $71,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $170,237
• Equity at exit: $153,480

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,022/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $335	+0% $313	+5% $290	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $211	-5% $262	+0% $313	+5% $363	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $352	-0.5pp $333	base $313	+0.5pp $292	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Mountain View Ln Mohawk, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	45d	1	1.06mi
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 683-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   price $79,000 683-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $89,900 Active 683-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$3,022
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $2,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $3,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Herkimer

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,022 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.