4537 40th Pl N · Birmingham, AL 35217

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1948 6,969 sqft lot $82/sqft · 35% above area Est $44k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY!!! Nice 2-bedroom 1 bath property in great condition!!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 103 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($887 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $60k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.37%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,373
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: 34.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4521 40th Pl N	0.03mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	18mo	$40,000	$55	84
4509 40th Pl N	0.07mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	18mo	$40,000	$55	82
4503 40th Pl N	0.08mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	18mo	$40,000	$55	82
1061 Bristol St	0.59mi	2/1.0	736 (+1%)	21mo	$58,000	$79	54
1213 Maple St	0.56mi	2/1.0	792 (+9%)	8mo	$55,500	$70	52
1440 Park Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	720 (-1%)	20mo	$46,500	$65	48
3912 39th Ave N	0.56mi	1/1.0 (-1)	763 (+5%)	20mo	$32,000	$42	44
5021 43rd St N	0.46mi	2/1.0	834 (+15%)	21mo	$40,000	$48	37
3921 37th Ave N	0.72mi	2/1.0	816 (+12%)	22mo	$32,000	$39	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $12,490
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $40,892
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35217

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $456

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $358	+0% $341	+5% $324	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $306	+0% $341	+5% $376	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $356	base $341	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4549 40th Pl N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	44d	1	0.06mi
3944 40th St N Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	625	$675	$1.08	44d	1	0.44mi
3944 40th St N Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	625	$699	$1.12	3d	1	0.44mi
821 Overton Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	650	$625	$0.96	44d	1	0.52mi
1233 Elm Ave Unit a Birmingham, AL	1.0	1.0	580	$703	$1.21	3d	1	0.64mi
1137 Sloan Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	15d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $59,900 Active 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY!!! Nice 2-bedroom 1 bath property in great condition!!

16. 2026-02-09
    historical $750
17. 2025-10-07
    price $750
18. 2025-05-08
    listed $825
19. 2025-02-22
    historical $825
20. 2025-02-07
    listed $825
21. 2020-06-12
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    GREAT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY

22. 2020-05-26
    price $24,900 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    GREAT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY

23. 2020-05-25
    historical Contingent 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    GREAT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY

24. 2020-05-25
    status Pending 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    GREAT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY

25. 2020-05-01
    listed $29,900 Active 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    GREAT STARTER HOME OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY

26. 2019-04-03
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$851
• − Management: −$851
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$790
• After-tax cash flow: $3,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,240
• Household income: $40,486
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.54%
• Current HPI: 117.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+99.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $59,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $750 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $750 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-08 Listed for Rent $825 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-22 Rental Removed $825 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-07 Listed for Rent $825 APPFOLIO
• 2020-06-12 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-05-26 Price Changed $24,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-05-25 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-05-25 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-05-01 Listed $29,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.