304 Hcr 1433 · Covington, TX 76636

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1992 2.22 ac lot $140/sqft · 23% below area Est $326k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on over two acres of peaceful Texas land, this double wide mobile home offers the space and freedom to create the lifestyle you have been dreaming of. The home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with no carpet throughout, showcasing durable luxury vinyl plank flooring and ceramic tile for easy maintenance and a clean modern feel. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities, providing both comfort and functionality. Outside, the expansive property includes a fenced backyard, a one car carport, and multiple outbuildings that offer excellent storage and the potential for a chicken coop or hobby space. Enjoy watching the deer and other wildlife from your own backyard! With wide open land, mature trees, and endless possibilities for gardening, animals, or future improvements, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy privacy, space, and the chance to truly make both the home and land your own. Call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• No carpet
• Over two acres

Tags

• OVER TWO ACRES
• NO CARPET
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (41.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.5% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#991 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, crime F.
• Covington ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #698 of 1,141 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,537 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.43%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,731
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -23.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-8,015
• Equity at exit: $105,188

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $23,982
• Equity at exit: $156,700

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76636

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,810/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $163,142

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-421	+0% $-492	+5% $-562	+10% $-633
Rent	-10% $-607	-5% $-550	+0% $-492	+5% $-434	+10% $-376
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-428	base $-492	+0.5pp $-556	+1.0pp $-622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Option Contract 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   Tucked away on over two acres of peaceful Texas land, this double wide mobile home offers the space and freedom to create the lifestyle you have been dreaming of. The home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with no carpet throughout, showcasing durable luxury vinyl plank flooring and ceramic tile for easy maintenance and a clean modern feel. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities, providing both comfort and functionality. Outside, the expansive property includes a fenced backyard, a one car carport, and multiple outbuildings that offer excellent storage and the potential for a chicken coop or hobby space. Enjoy watching the deer and other wildlife from your own backyard! With wide open land, mature trees, and endless possibilities for gardening, animals, or future improvements, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy privacy, space, and the chance to truly make both the home and land your own. Call today for a showing!

2. 2026-04-09
   status Active 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   Tucked away on over two acres of peaceful Texas land, this double wide mobile home offers the space and freedom to create the lifestyle you have been dreaming of. The home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with no carpet throughout, showcasing durable luxury vinyl plank flooring and ceramic tile for easy maintenance and a clean modern feel. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities, providing both comfort and functionality. Outside, the expansive property includes a fenced backyard, a one car carport, and multiple outbuildings that offer excellent storage and the potential for a chicken coop or hobby space. Enjoy watching the deer and other wildlife from your own backyard! With wide open land, mature trees, and endless possibilities for gardening, animals, or future improvements, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy privacy, space, and the chance to truly make both the home and land your own. Call today for a showing!

3. 2026-04-03
   historical Active Option Contract 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   Tucked away on over two acres of peaceful Texas land, this double wide mobile home offers the space and freedom to create the lifestyle you have been dreaming of. The home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with no carpet throughout, showcasing durable luxury vinyl plank flooring and ceramic tile for easy maintenance and a clean modern feel. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities, providing both comfort and functionality. Outside, the expansive property includes a fenced backyard, a one car carport, and multiple outbuildings that offer excellent storage and the potential for a chicken coop or hobby space. Enjoy watching the deer and other wildlife from your own backyard! With wide open land, mature trees, and endless possibilities for gardening, animals, or future improvements, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy privacy, space, and the chance to truly make both the home and land your own. Call today for a showing!

4. 2026-01-15
   listed $250,000 Active 986-char remark

   Show marketing remark (986 chars)

   Tucked away on over two acres of peaceful Texas land, this double wide mobile home offers the space and freedom to create the lifestyle you have been dreaming of. The home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms with no carpet throughout, showcasing durable luxury vinyl plank flooring and ceramic tile for easy maintenance and a clean modern feel. The primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom with dual vanities, providing both comfort and functionality. Outside, the expansive property includes a fenced backyard, a one car carport, and multiple outbuildings that offer excellent storage and the potential for a chicken coop or hobby space. Enjoy watching the deer and other wildlife from your own backyard! With wide open land, mature trees, and endless possibilities for gardening, animals, or future improvements, this property presents a rare opportunity to enjoy privacy, space, and the chance to truly make both the home and land your own. Call today for a showing!

5. 2022-04-29
   soldstatus Closed 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Are you looking for a little bit of country and a newly renovated home? You just found it! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on a little over 2 acres of treed land. Freshly painted, new flooring, new fixtures and more! The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinets and a built in microwave. The clean neutral color pallet allows you to bring your personal touches. Fenced yard. 3 storage barns. Mature Oak trees. You won't want to miss this! Schedule your showing today!

6. 2022-04-11
   status Pending 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Are you looking for a little bit of country and a newly renovated home? You just found it! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on a little over 2 acres of treed land. Freshly painted, new flooring, new fixtures and more! The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinets and a built in microwave. The clean neutral color pallet allows you to bring your personal touches. Fenced yard. 3 storage barns. Mature Oak trees. You won't want to miss this! Schedule your showing today!

7. 2022-04-06
   historical Active Option Contract 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Are you looking for a little bit of country and a newly renovated home? You just found it! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on a little over 2 acres of treed land. Freshly painted, new flooring, new fixtures and more! The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinets and a built in microwave. The clean neutral color pallet allows you to bring your personal touches. Fenced yard. 3 storage barns. Mature Oak trees. You won't want to miss this! Schedule your showing today!

8. 2022-03-31
   listed $235,000 Active 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Are you looking for a little bit of country and a newly renovated home? You just found it! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home sits on a little over 2 acres of treed land. Freshly painted, new flooring, new fixtures and more! The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, lots of cabinets and a built in microwave. The clean neutral color pallet allows you to bring your personal touches. Fenced yard. 3 storage barns. Mature Oak trees. You won't want to miss this! Schedule your showing today!

9. 2021-01-13
   soldstatus
10. 2016-03-04
    soldstatus
11. 2012-03-29
    soldstatus
12. 2006-10-21
    soldstatus
13. 2000-03-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,765/yr (+$147/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,810
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$10,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,536
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815480
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,773
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #9086
• State rank: #698 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Covington

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #991
• US rank: #17655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,678

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Current HPI: 255.7467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-04-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-04-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-31 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2021-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,810 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.