605 E Private Road 7240 · Lubbock, TX 79404

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 2021 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sellers offering $5,000 in Flex Cash with an acceptable offer! This 2021-built home in the highly sought-after Lubbock-Cooper ISD sits on a massive 1.46-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of space and opportunity. With nearly 2,000 sq. ft. of living area, the functional layout includes a spacious primary suite featuring dual walk-in closets and well-maintained bathrooms throughout. While the home is ready for a few personal finishing touches (TLC), it presents a rare chance to build immediate equity in a prime location. The expansive acreage provides endless possibilities for a shop, pool, or garden. Don't miss this chance to secure a modern country retreat with a significant financial head start—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Expansive acreage
• 1.46 acre lot

Tags

• MASSIVE 1.46-ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• WELL-MAINTAINED BATHROOMS
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• MODERN COUNTRY RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,195 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,934
• Equity at exit: $97,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $53,102
• Equity at exit: $151,704

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $164,835

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1702 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,499	$1.01	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $232,500 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Sellers offering $5,000 in Flex Cash with an acceptable offer! This 2021-built home in the highly sought-after Lubbock-Cooper ISD sits on a massive 1.46-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of space and opportunity. With nearly 2,000 sq. ft. of living area, the functional layout includes a spacious primary suite featuring dual walk-in closets and well-maintained bathrooms throughout. While the home is ready for a few personal finishing touches (TLC), it presents a rare chance to build immediate equity in a prime location. The expansive acreage provides endless possibilities for a shop, pool, or garden. Don't miss this chance to secure a modern country retreat with a significant financial head start—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$7,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $232,500 LARMLS