16533 Louis Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1978 2,500 sqft lot Est $213k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious and well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in the heart of South Holland! This charming property offers three levels of comfortable living space, plus a fully finished basement. The home features a desirable primary bedroom with an en suite full bath. The main and lower levels boast a bright and inviting layout with ample natural light, while the upper level offer generously sized bedrooms with plenty of closet space. Other highlights include a detached 2.5 car garage, large front and backyard, new furnace and Generac generator, and easy access to parks, schools, shopping, and major highways. Move-in ready and waiting for you to make it home!

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Taft School (364 students, 0% FRL); Coolidge Middle School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Thornwood High School (math 8% / reading 9%, grade F, #584 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,996 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $240k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
459 E 166th St	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	87
16417 Claire Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,209 (-5%)	2mo	$254,995	$211	71
239 E 165th St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,438 (+13%)	2mo	$260,100	$181	69
16721 School St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+6%)	3mo	$102,000	$76	62
16927 Langley Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (+1%)	1mo	$179,900	$140	60
16728 School St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-8%)	2mo	$196,000	$168	60
16712 Elm St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (+14%)	2mo	$191,000	$132	60
702 E 162nd Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+10%)	1mo	$230,000	$164	50
823 E 163rd St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-7%)	1mo	$197,500	$167	48
16645 Cottage Grove Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	1mo	$211,894	$189	47
16549 Cottage Grove Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+12%)	2mo	$219,500	$154	47
112 E 160th Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,141 (-10%)	2mo	$210,000	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,866
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $27,283
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,484/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,508

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $504	+0% $436	+5% $368	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $315	+0% $436	+5% $557	+10% $678
Rate	-1.0pp $557	-0.5pp $497	base $436	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	0d	1	0.86mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	7d	1	1.28mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	9d	1	1.30mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	26d	1	1.30mi
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	26d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-14
   listed $239,900 Active
6. 1990-08-24
   soldstatus $126,000
7. 1990-08-01
   soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,484 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,484 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$7,484
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,938
• − Management: −$2,938
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $1,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $4,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+90.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $239,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,484 · +36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.