811 Hervey Sunside Rd · East Durham, NY 12418

$149,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1980 7.10 ac lot $99/sqft · 29% below area Est $173k · 13% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in the Catskills. This 7.1-acre property features wooded riding trails, a private pond, and endless potential. This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home is being sold as-is, making it an ideal opportunity for renovation or investment. Perfectly located just 15 minutes from Windham Mountain and 25 minutes from Catskill, you'll enjoy year-round recreation, skiing, dining, and shopping close by. With plenty of space and natural beauty, this property offers the chance to design your own retreat in one of the most desirable areas of the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

Key facts

• Wooded riding trails
• 7.1-acre property
• Private pond

Tags

• 7.1-ACRE PROPERTY
• WOODED RIDING TRAILS
• PRIVATE POND
• YEAR-ROUND RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in East Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $136,499 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,117
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -13.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $31,604
• Equity at exit: $75,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $95,574
• Equity at exit: $123,956

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12418

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,874/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $129	+0% $86	+5% $44	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $24	+0% $86	+5% $149	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $125	base $86	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Investor special in the Catskills. This 7.1-acre property features wooded riding trails, a private pond, and endless potential. This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home is being sold as-is, making it an ideal opportunity for renovation or investment. Perfectly located just 15 minutes from Windham Mountain and 25 minutes from Catskill, you'll enjoy year-round recreation, skiing, dining, and shopping close by. With plenty of space and natural beauty, this property offers the chance to design your own retreat in one of the most desirable areas of the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

2. 2026-02-14
   listed $149,999 Active 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   Investor special in the Catskills. This 7.1-acre property features wooded riding trails, a private pond, and endless potential. This 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home is being sold as-is, making it an ideal opportunity for renovation or investment. Perfectly located just 15 minutes from Windham Mountain and 25 minutes from Catskill, you'll enjoy year-round recreation, skiing, dining, and shopping close by. With plenty of space and natural beauty, this property offers the chance to design your own retreat in one of the most desirable areas of the Hudson Valley and Catskills.

3. 2025-12-28
   price $179,000
4. 2025-12-05
   status Active
5. 2025-09-23
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-01
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,874 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,874 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,874
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$320
• After-tax cash flow: $1,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Durham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,033
• Population (ZIP): 321

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Current HPI: 445.7105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $149,999 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $179,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-23 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $199,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,874 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.