121 Fredericka St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1880 10,860 sqft lot Est $321k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Triple City Lot! Privacy in the City! Well cared for 145 year old home that still has the original wood 6 panel doors and woodwork throughout most of the home. Large spacious kitchen with a snack bar and pantry area. The formal dining room connects the family and living rooms for a nice flow throughout. Upstairs front bedroom has 2 huge walk in closets with walk in closets in other bedrooms too. Clean (not scary) stone basement with a boiler, hwt (2024) and updated electric service. The exterior is vinyl with a 9 year old roof (30 yr transferrable manufacturer's warranty) All appliances: kitchen stove & frig, basement washer, dryer and freezer are included in the sale. There is an enclosed 12x5 back porch too. Wood burning stove in basement was never used by this owner. Showings start immediately, offers due 1/16/25 at noon.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Massive yard
• Oversized city lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED CITY LOT
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• MASSIVE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing construction; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified; Property condition: Resale
• Construction: Frame construction; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Asphalt shingle pitched roof; Poured and slab foundation; Built as existing (year built details listed as existing)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 120 x 90)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include Living Room, Entry Foyer, Family Room
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water/ radiator heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Leaded glass windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,732
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Fredericka St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,772 (0%)	15mo	$192,500	$109	88
89 16th Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-5%)	3mo	$270,000	$160	73
96 Northeast Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-2%)	11mo	$321,999	$186	72
1304 Payne Ave	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,759 (-1%)	11mo	$375,000	$213	55
186 E Felton St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,925 (+9%)	6mo	$279,900	$145	50
100 Greenwood Cir	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,735 (-2%)	18mo	$365,000	$210	47
29 6th Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+1%)	17mo	$222,600	$125	44
301 Summit Blvd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,587 (-10%)	15mo	$345,000	$217	40
142 10th Ave	0.45mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,029 (+14%)	19mo	$240,000	$118	32
131 Homestead Dr	0.75mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,520 (-14%)	22mo	$275,000	$181	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,646
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $44,411
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,524/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $343	+0% $287	+5% $231	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $206	+0% $287	+5% $368	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $338	base $287	+0.5pp $236	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 7th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1576	$1,500	$0.95	2d	1	0.61mi
207 Spaulding St Unit Upper North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	2324	$1,300	$0.56	24d	1	0.65mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	2d	12	0.88mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $199,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-25
   listed $199,000 Active
5. 2025-03-26
   soldstatus $192,500 Closed 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Triple City Lot! Privacy in the City! Well cared for 145 year old home that still has the original wood 6 panel doors and woodwork throughout most of the home. Large spacious kitchen with a snack bar and pantry area. The formal dining room connects the family and living rooms for a nice flow throughout. Upstairs front bedroom has 2 huge walk in closets with walk in closets in other bedrooms too. Clean (not scary) stone basement with a boiler, hwt (2024) and updated electric service. The exterior is vinyl with a 9 year old roof (30 yr transferrable manufacturer's warranty) All appliances: kitchen stove & frig, basement washer, dryer and freezer are included in the sale. There is an enclosed 12x5 back porch too. Wood burning stove in basement was never used by this owner. Showings start immediately, offers due 1/16/25 at noon.

6. 2025-01-18
   status Pending 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Triple City Lot! Privacy in the City! Well cared for 145 year old home that still has the original wood 6 panel doors and woodwork throughout most of the home. Large spacious kitchen with a snack bar and pantry area. The formal dining room connects the family and living rooms for a nice flow throughout. Upstairs front bedroom has 2 huge walk in closets with walk in closets in other bedrooms too. Clean (not scary) stone basement with a boiler, hwt (2024) and updated electric service. The exterior is vinyl with a 9 year old roof (30 yr transferrable manufacturer's warranty) All appliances: kitchen stove & frig, basement washer, dryer and freezer are included in the sale. There is an enclosed 12x5 back porch too. Wood burning stove in basement was never used by this owner. Showings start immediately, offers due 1/16/25 at noon.

7. 2025-01-08
   listed $174,900 Active 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Triple City Lot! Privacy in the City! Well cared for 145 year old home that still has the original wood 6 panel doors and woodwork throughout most of the home. Large spacious kitchen with a snack bar and pantry area. The formal dining room connects the family and living rooms for a nice flow throughout. Upstairs front bedroom has 2 huge walk in closets with walk in closets in other bedrooms too. Clean (not scary) stone basement with a boiler, hwt (2024) and updated electric service. The exterior is vinyl with a 9 year old roof (30 yr transferrable manufacturer's warranty) All appliances: kitchen stove & frig, basement washer, dryer and freezer are included in the sale. There is an enclosed 12x5 back porch too. Wood burning stove in basement was never used by this owner. Showings start immediately, offers due 1/16/25 at noon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,524 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,524
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $3,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+13.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-26 Sold (MLS) $192,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $174,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,524 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.