7405 Leading Oaks · Live Oak, TX 78233

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1971 10,497 sqft lot Est $214k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the desirable community of Live Oak! Offering two living areas, two dining areas, and a backyard designed for entertaining, this home provides the perfect blend of comfort and functionality. The spacious kitchen and dining area flow seamlessly into the large family room, creating a warm and open gathering space where everyone can come together. For more formal occasions, the front living and dining room offer additional flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard retreat featuring a covered patio and sparkling pool-perfect for cooling off on warm Texas days or hosting family and friends. The ov

Key facts

• Two dining areas
• Large family room
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• TWO DINING AREAS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FRONT LIVING AND DINING ROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Live Oak Village / Live Oak Village JD

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Approximate age: 55 years
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Privacy fence; Storage shed; Mature trees; Dog run/kennel; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Stove/Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan and full bath; Bedroom 2: 11 x 10; Bedroom 3: 14 x 10; Master bedroom dimensions: 11 x 14
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and single vanity (7 x 3)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Some window coverings remain; Two living areas; Eat-in kitchen; Utility area in garage; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#211 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,080 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,462
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
331 Shin Oak	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-2%)	1mo	$199,000	$149	80
7409 Sage Oak	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+3%)	4mo	$250,000	$178	73
323 Cherrywood	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+3%)	4mo	$257,900	$183	72
117 Lost Frst	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+4%)	4mo	$224,000	$157	70
12705 Lone Shadow Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+10%)	1mo	$239,000	$158	70
7522 Wishing Oaks	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-6%)	3mo	$245,000	$190	64
7305 Sage Oak St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+13%)	0mo	$189,000	$122	61
7616 Old Spanish Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+7%)	2mo	$209,500	$143	60
7830 Village Oak Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+13%)	0mo	$250,000	$161	55
145 Lost Forest St	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,518 (+11%)	1mo	$225,000	$148	54
7501 Leafy Holw	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+8%)	4mo	$139,900	$95	54
210 Lost Frst	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-13%)	4mo	$175,000	$147	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-17,381
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,665
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78233

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,391/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7329 Leading Oaks St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,750	$1.42	24d	1	0.11mi
406 Greycliff Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	15d	1	0.26mi
12602 Moss Hollow St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,675	$0.96	44d	1	0.34mi
7607 Sage Oak St Live Oak, TX	3.0	1.0	1013	$1,200	$1.18	4d	1	0.38mi
13003 Toepperwein Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1643	$2,448	$1.49	3d	18	0.44mi
7708 Brunning Ct Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,000	$1.16	13d	1	0.53mi
161 Lost Forest St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	984	$1,395	$1.42	4d	1	0.56mi
164 Lost Forest St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,200	$1.35	24d	1	0.58mi
7503 Savannah Brks Unit 7503 Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	15d	1	0.58mi
7822 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,375	$1.02	3d	1	0.62mi
7220 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,475	$1.10	24d	1	0.63mi
7216 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,450	$1.08	13d	1	0.63mi
7208 Savannah Brks Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,450	$1.08	20d	1	0.63mi
7828 Pat Booker Rd Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,873	$1.87	3d	50	0.65mi
7236 Rimwood St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	44d	1	0.67mi
7222 Rimwood St Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.70mi
13316 Reid Mdws Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,395	$1.04	44d	1	0.70mi
7220 Rimwood Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,450	$1.17	24d	1	0.71mi
7214 Rimwood Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,500	$1.21	24d	1	0.73mi
12810 Weeping Oak Trl Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,475	$1.12	44d	1	0.76mi
6730 Nora Vista Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,895	$1.10	4d	1	0.81mi
12005 Prairie Oak St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	44d	1	0.82mi
7917 Oak Forest Dr Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,645	$1.45	24d	1	0.96mi
13803 Laramie Hl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,095	$1.13	15d	1	0.97mi
8101 Shin Oak Dr Unit 710 Live Oak, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,408	$1.27	3d	1	1.01mi
8101 Shin Oak Dr Unit 3294 Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,856	$1.31	3d	1	1.01mi
6515 Kestrel Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,650	$0.97	15d	1	1.01mi
11702 Welcome Dr Unit Labs Live Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1107	$1,695	$1.53	22d	1	1.05mi
13700 Judson Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,374	$1.20	18d	1	1.06mi
12607 Judson Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,444	$1.40	3d	23	1.06mi
12607 Judson Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,444	$1.40	44d	1	1.06mi
8130 Shin Oak Dr Live Oak, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,115	$2.12	2d	18	1.08mi
6534 Marcel Way Unit 102 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,399	$1.06	44d	1	1.11mi
14006 Fratelli Rd Unit 104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,395	$1.02	3d	1	1.12mi
6526 Marcel Way #104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	1.12mi
6522 Marcel Way Unit 102 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,375	$1.04	44d	1	1.13mi
6518 Marcel Way Unit 104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,325	$1.00	44d	1	1.14mi
6518 Marcel Way #101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,325	$1.00	18d	1	1.14mi
11205 Champion Oak Live Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	3d	1	1.14mi
6506 Marcel Way #104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1324	$1,450	$1.10	8d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $128,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Price Change 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Price Change 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $128,000 Price Change 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $214,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    listed $214,000 New
11. 2026-04-15
    historical
12. 2026-02-18
    price $198,000
13. 2026-02-05
    price $225,000
14. 2026-02-02
    listed $195,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,391 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,391 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$5,391
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $1,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #5260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,911
• Household income: $76,421
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1635.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 23% Black 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.27%
• Current HPI: 274.943
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.06%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $214,000 LERA
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $198,000 LERA
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $225,000 LERA
• 2026-02-02 Listed $195,000 LERA

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,391 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.