16464 Pennsylvania 267 · Forest Lake, PA 18801

$39,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 1.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on a quaint country acreage the possibilities for this 1900 century Home are endless. Currently in the process of being subdivided. Reassessment will occur upon completion.

Key facts

• 1.13 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.5 acres (survey in process)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Electricity available (200 amp or less); Water available; Sewer: Unknown; Paved state road frontage; Cleared lot
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1900; Stone foundation; Other structure: Barn(s)
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (listed individually in room layout)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Basement with stone floor; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Montrose Area SD (rural): math 35% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Susquehanna County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Susquehanna County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.01%
• DSCR: 6.21
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $74,498
• Equity at exit: $18,240

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.01×
• Total profit: $167,661
• Equity at exit: $28,344

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18801

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $1,089

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,117	-5% $1,103	+0% $1,089	+5% $1,076	+10% $1,062
Rent	-10% $953	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,089	+5% $1,158	+10% $1,226
Rate	-1.0pp $1,109	-0.5pp $1,100	base $1,089	+0.5pp $1,079	+1.0pp $1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $13,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,174
• After-tax cash flow: $9,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. A new roof, exterior siding, and interior drywall are among the most pressing needs.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major interior walls — Exposed drywall and subflooring
• Major bathroom fixtures — Exposed plumbing and substandard fixtures
• Major electrical wiring — Exposed wiring

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh coat of paint and new siding would greatly enhance the home's appearance
• Resale interior drywall and flooring — Recovering the exposed drywall and installing new flooring would make the interior look more finished and presentable
• Resale bathroom fixtures and plumbing — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures and plumbing would make the space more functional and appealing
• Both electrical wiring — Upgrading the electrical wiring would improve safety and functionality, and also make the home more attractive to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Exposed drywall and subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Exposed plumbing and substandard fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
electrical wiring · Exposed wiring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh coat of paint and new siding would greatly enhance the home's appearance ↑
• Resale interior drywall and flooring — Recovering the exposed drywall and installing new flooring would make the interior look more finished and presentable ↑
• Resale bathroom fixtures and plumbing — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures and plumbing would make the space more functional and appealing ↑
• Both electrical wiring — Upgrading the electrical wiring would improve safety and functionality, and also make the home more attractive to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montrose Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215810
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,819
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3569
• State rank: #214 of 539 in PA

Livability — Forest Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,838

Population outlook (Susquehanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,552 people
• By 2030: 35,270 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 30,663 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,492 · -29.5%
• By 2075: 19,658 · -47.7%
• By 2100: 15,179 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Susquehanna

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.2% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 133.3042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $39,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID