2439 Mist Ave · Stanton, TX 79782

$220,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2022 1.00 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home situated on a full 1-acre lot in desirable Stanton ISD! This open-concept layout offers generous living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Oversized closets in every bedroom provide abundant storage, while the sequestered primary suite offers privacy and a relaxing retreat. Enjoy wide-open space inside and out with endless possibilities for outdoor living, a shop, or future improvements. A rare find with room to grow—don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Oversized closets
• Full 1-acre lot
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• FULL 1-ACRE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED CLOSETS
• SEQUESTERED PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($729/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#140 in TX, #4,008 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Stanton ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #426 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,258 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $71,209
• Equity at exit: $142,433

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $205,336
• Equity at exit: $261,939

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79782

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,736

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $123	+0% $61	+5% $-1	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-11	+0% $61	+5% $132	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $117	base $61	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $220,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $225,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home situated on a full 1-acre lot in desirable Stanton ISD! This open-concept layout offers generous living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Oversized closets in every bedroom provide abundant storage, while the sequestered primary suite offers privacy and a relaxing retreat. Enjoy wide-open space inside and out with endless possibilities for outdoor living, a shop, or future improvements. A rare find with room to grow—don't miss this opportunity!

18. 2026-03-31
    price $237,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home situated on a full 1-acre lot in desirable Stanton ISD! This open-concept layout offers generous living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Oversized closets in every bedroom provide abundant storage, while the sequestered primary suite offers privacy and a relaxing retreat. Enjoy wide-open space inside and out with endless possibilities for outdoor living, a shop, or future improvements. A rare find with room to grow—don't miss this opportunity!

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $249,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home situated on a full 1-acre lot in desirable Stanton ISD! This open-concept layout offers generous living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Oversized closets in every bedroom provide abundant storage, while the sequestered primary suite offers privacy and a relaxing retreat. Enjoy wide-open space inside and out with endless possibilities for outdoor living, a shop, or future improvements. A rare find with room to grow—don't miss this opportunity!

20. 2025-11-19
    price $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,516/yr (+$210/mo · 166.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,595
• Composite: 33.86/100
• National rank: #5353
• State rank: #426 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stanton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #4008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,831

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,556 people
• By 2030: 8,556 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 10,786 · +42.7%
• By 2050: 13,158 · +74.1%
• By 2075: 19,334 · +155.9%
• By 2100: 23,704 · +213.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 43% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+67.6 2012: R+68.5 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.30%
• Current HPI: 195.1131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $225,000 PBBOR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $237,000 PBBOR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $249,000 PBBOR
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $280,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,510 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.