1251 Patton Dr · Russellton, PA 15076

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1910 8,137 sqft lot Est $208k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Detached garage "AS IS CONDITION" Exceptionally well kept side by side, many updates, roof, win. boiler, 2 H2O Htrs. Home is set up 4 rms + 2 Bedrm=1Side-3 rms +2Bedrm=1Side.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Convenient mudroom
• Dedicated office

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• CONVENIENT MUDROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• DECK OVERLOOKING POOL
• AMPLE OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Private lot with dimensions approximately 72 x 113 x 72 x 113; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level) 12x12; Microwave; Stove; Some electric appliances
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedrooms (three): 13x12, 13x12, 15x11; Upper-level fourth bedroom: 15x13; Main-level bonus room: 10x8; Main-level den: 10x8
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard units; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Full walk-out basement; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-426/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,542 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Deer Lakes SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #182 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Union Intrmd Sch (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #712 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 377 students, 49% FRL); Deer Lakes Ms (math 36% / reading 58%, grade D+, #163 of 512 statewide, top 33%, 422 students, 38% FRL); Deer Lakes Hs (math 52%, 583 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $808 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $150k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,101 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,564
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1302 1304 Macarthur Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,176 (+3%)	15mo	$120,800	$56	82
1004 Macarthur	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-6%)	15mo	$215,000	$108	60
20 Oak St	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,932 (-9%)	3mo	$190,000	$98	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,764
• Equity at exit: $47,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,972
• Equity at exit: $60,598

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15076

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,767/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $143,623

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $7	+0% $-36	+5% $-78	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-88	+0% $-36	+5% $17	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $3	base $-36	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $159,900 Active
16. 2006-10-10
    soldstatus $78,700
17. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus $78,700 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Detached garage "AS IS CONDITION" Exceptionally well kept side by side, many updates, roof, win. boiler, 2 H2O Htrs. Home is set up 4 rms + 2 Bedrm=1Side-3 rms +2Bedrm=1Side.

18. 2006-08-02
    listed $79,900 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Detached garage "AS IS CONDITION" Exceptionally well kept side by side, many updates, roof, win. boiler, 2 H2O Htrs. Home is set up 4 rms + 2 Bedrm=1Side-3 rms +2Bedrm=1Side.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,767 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,767 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,767
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Lakes SD
• NCES district ID: 4207540
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,944
• Composite: 42.64/100
• National rank: #3183
• State rank: #182 of 539 in PA

Livability — Russellton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1542
• US rank: #20295

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Russellton, PA
• City population: 859
• Population (ZIP): 859

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Current HPI: 198.6067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $159,900 West Penn MLS
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $78,700 Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (MLS) $78,700 West Penn MLS
• 2006-08-02 Listed $79,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,767 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.