142 W Aliso Dr · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1970 5,271 sqft lot Est $152k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY THE MOUNTAIN VIEWS FROM THIS CHARMING 2 BEDROOM, 2 BATH HOME. LOW MAINTENANCE DESIGN. LOCATED IN A HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER 55+C0MMUNITY. THE BEST PART? YOU OWN YOUR LOT. A/C AND GAS HEAT FOR COMFORT. ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED. SIZEABLE WORKSHOP FOR TINKERING OR STORAGE. RELAX ON YOUR PRIVATE PATIO OR ENJOY FULL ACCESS TO THE RECREATIONAL FACILITIES. HOA ONLY $65.00 MO. GREAT LOCATION, CLOSE TO SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS, MEDICAL FACILITIES, AND GOLF. NO GVR BUT IT IS AVAILABLE.

Key facts

• 5,271 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pueblo Estates association with monthly HOA fee ($65); HOA transfer fee ($250); HOA covers common area and street maintenance; Community clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, recreation room, fitness center, lighted areas, paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered/carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story; Faces south
• Construction: 1,152 living area
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Previously developed lot; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Skylights; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $159k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
267 W Tuna Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	3mo	$189,000	$151	86
266 W Pinon Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	2mo	$168,000	$136	86
167 W Cedro Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	5mo	$158,000	$127	84
32 W Pinon Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,190 (-1%)	5mo	$118,000	$99	82
269 W Mora Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-4%)	1mo	$150,000	$130	81
270 W Palma Dr	0.23mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (-0%)	7mo	$190,000	$159	78
247 W Palma Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	7mo	$140,000	$112	77
182 W Palma Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	74
30 W Rosa Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$143,500	$107	71
209 W Rama Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-11%)	8mo	$90,000	$85	70
161 W Olive Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,347 (+12%)	1mo	$107,500	$80	69
145 W Pinon Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	0mo	$195,000	$145	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,124
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $37,266
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1567 N Paseo La Tinaja Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,250	$1.17	2d	1	0.37mi
1091 W Beta St Green Valley, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	917	$1,350	$1.47	2d	5	0.42mi
312 E Calle Cerita Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,700	$1.21	10d	1	0.75mi
2181 N Avenida Tabica Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,695	$1.18	2d	1	0.76mi
457 W Windham Blvd Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1369	$2,300	$1.68	2d	1	0.76mi
18878 S Esherton Dr Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,850	$1.39	24d	1	0.79mi
724 W Rio Moctezuma Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1234	$1,450	$1.18	10d	1	0.84mi
18828 S Esherton Dr Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.5	1466	$1,625	$1.11	3d	1	0.86mi
18744 S Via Santa Bonita Sahuarita, AZ	2.0	2.0	1261	$1,595	$1.26	44d	1	0.96mi
2535 N Avenida Tabica Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,725	$1.16	44d	1	1.00mi
390 N Calle de las Profetas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,250	$1.30	3d	1	1.38mi
359 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,475	$1.39	16d	1	1.42mi
327 N Calle del Chancero Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1343	$1,400	$1.04	3d	1	1.46mi
936 W Placita Canalito Green Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,715	$1.36	12d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-02-07
    listed $170,000 Active
15. 2003-09-26
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$686/yr (+$57/mo · 188.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+325.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $170,000 MLSSAZ
• 2003-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $364 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.