5437 Stag Mountain Rd · Lake Shastina, CA 96094

$212,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1974 0.38 ac lot Est $300k · 29% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming two-bed, two-bath home in Lake Shastina offers the perfect blend of comfort and breathtaking views. Tucked away with stunning vistas of Mount Shasta, it features a cozy wood stove, efficient mini-split heating and cooling, and a spacious wrap-around deck--ideal for relaxing and taking in the scenery. With two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, it's perfect for couples or small families looking for a peaceful retreat in this desirable community. Come see why this cute home is a true gem!

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Cozy wood stove
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• SPACIOUS WRAP-AROUND DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $35 fee

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized parking
• Utilities: 220-volt electric service; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Steep slope lot; Gravel road access; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning stove fireplace; Refrigerator included; Washer included
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $212k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Lake Shastina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $212k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,904
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5001 Indian Island Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (+3%)	20mo	$310,000	$284	57
4143 Rainbow Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,166 (+10%)	22mo	$235,000	$202	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,352
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,280
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96094

• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,471/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,803

Max offer price $212,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Stag Mountain Rd Weed, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	44d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $212,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $212,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $212,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $212,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $212,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $212,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $212,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $212,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $212,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $212,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $212,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $212,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $212,000 Active
19. 2004-06-18
    soldstatus $137,500
20. 1993-07-13
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,611 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$1,471
• − Insurance: −$1,858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable income: $385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siskiyou Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636940
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,293
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9605
• State rank: #763 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Shastina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Shastina, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,674

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.11%
• Current HPI: 152.605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+226.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $212,000 SAOR
• 2004-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 1993-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,471 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.