14136 Biscayne Trl · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$219,595

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,167 sqft · Land · 111 Days on market

Built 2025 $188/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the stunning Pine plan, a beautifully designed layout, perfect for homebuyers seeking comfortable luxury. This spacious and modern home blends style and practicality with thoughtful details to make it ideal for any lifestyle. As you enter, you are greeted by a spacious foyer with a convenient closet, offering an organized and welcoming entry. The open-concept design leads seamlessly into the expansive family room, which flows effortlessly into the combined kitchen and dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining, whether hosting large family gatherings, dinner parties, or enjoying cozy nights in. The gourmet kitchen features high-end finishes, including sleek granite countertops, a stylish ceramic tile backsplash, elegant flat-panel birch cabinets, and top-of-the-line appliances. Whether you're preparing a home-cooked meal or entertaining guests, this kitchen is designed to inspire creativity and enhance your cooking experience. Located just across the hall, you'll find two generously sized secondary bedrooms, both with ample closet space, while the third bedroom offers a spacious walk-in closet. A full secondary bathroom conveniently serves these bedrooms. The home also features a large walk-in utility room for additional storage. For ultimate relaxation, step outside to the sizable optional covered patio, perfect for outdoor dining, enjoying a cup of coffee, or watching the kids play in the backyard. The master suite offers a private, serene retreat.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Gourmet kitchen
• Spacious foyer

Tags

• SPACIOUS FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT-PANEL BIRCH CABINETS
• TOP-OF-THE-LINE APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($134/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 722 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,046 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,628
• List price: $219,595
• Delta: 1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-40,091
• Equity at exit: $32,742

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-54,172
• Equity at exit: $18,987

Cash invested: $61,487 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 722
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,152
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $990/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $219,595

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $73	+0% $11	+5% $-51	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-58	+0% $11	+5% $81	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $67	base $11	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,899
• Closing costs: $6,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,855	$1.11	0d	15	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $219,595 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,595 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,595 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,595 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,595 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,595 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,595 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,595 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,595 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,595 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,595 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,595 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,595 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,595 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,595 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-03-03
    listed $219,595 Active 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    As you enter, you are greeted by a spacious foyer with a convenient closet, offering an organized and welcoming entry. The open-concept design leads seamlessly into the expansive family room, which flows effortlessly into the combined kitchen and dining area. The gourmet kitchen features high-end finishes, including sleek granite countertops, elegant flat-panel birch cabinets, and top-of-the-line appliances. Located just across the hall, you'll find two generously sized secondary bedrooms, both with ample closet space, while the third bedroom offers a spacious walk-in closet. A full secondary bathroom conveniently serves these bedrooms. The home also features a large walk-in utility room for additional storage. Step outside to the sizable optional covered patio. The master suite offers a private, serene retreat. Tucked away at the back of the home, this luxurious space includes a spa-inspired bathroom with cultured marble countertops, a super shower, and a large walk-in closet.

17. 2026-03-03
    listed $219,595 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    As you enter, you are greeted by a spacious foyer with a convenient closet, offering an organized and welcoming entry. The open-concept design leads seamlessly into the expansive family room, which flows effortlessly into the combined kitchen and dining area. The gourmet kitchen features high-end finishes, including sleek granite countertops, elegant flat-panel birch cabinets, and top-of-the-line appliances. Located just across the hall, you'll find two generously sized secondary bedrooms, both with ample closet space, while the third bedroom offers a spacious walk-in closet. A full secondary bathroom conveniently serves these bedrooms. The home also features a large walk-in utility room for additional storage. Step outside to the sizable optional covered patio. The master suite offers a private, serene retreat. Tucked away at the back of the home, this luxurious space includes a spa-inspired bathroom with cultured marble countertops, a super shower, and a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $990 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,019 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,028/yr (+$252/mo · 305.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,301
• − Property taxes: −$990
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,388
• Taxable loss: −$3,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $1,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $219,595 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Listed $219,595 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $990 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.