2012 Hovey Pl · Gary, IN 46406

$20,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1941 9,757 sqft lot $10/sqft · 90% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special. 3bd 1bath with an unfinished basement. Full Rehab needed

Key facts

• 9,757 sq ft lot
• Built 1941
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is vacant
• Financial info: No investor or rental income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information provided
• Security: No security features reported
• Utilities: Public sewer; No water source specified
• Home design: Single-story home; Originally built in 1941; Estimated living area above grade: 2,064 (source: estimated)
• Construction: Unfinished basement noted; Year built 1941
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features reported; No significant view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Flooring: No flooring information provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system; Other cooling (unspecified)
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 86.2% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $389 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $251 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 86.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 285.53%
• DSCR: 13.70
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,868
• List price: $20,000
• Delta: -89.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1528 Hanley St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (+2%)	3mo	$226,000	$107	66
2407 Hanley St	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,028 (-2%)	2mo	$33,500	$17	65
1930 Wallace St	0.73mi	3/1.0	2,168 (+5%)	6mo	$101,000	$47	52
1370 W Baker St	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,176 (+5%)	18mo	$160,000	$74	48
1333 Hanley St	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,161 (+5%)	21mo	$205,000	$95	48
1172 Ralston St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (-2%)	14mo	$200,000	$99	47
1335 Williams St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (-12%)	5mo	$169,900	$93	43
5613 W 15th Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (-10%)	8mo	$180,000	$97	39
1539 Whitcomb St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-9%)	5mo	$235,000	$126	38
1989 Bigger St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,968 (-5%)	16mo	$203,000	$103	38
3762 W 20th Pl	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,768 (-14%)	4mo	$32,000	$18	37
4708 W 11th Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-9%)	17mo	$175,000	$93	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.27×
• Total profit: $85,530
• Equity at exit: $7,097

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 34.57×
• Total profit: $187,976
• Equity at exit: $9,642

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46406

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $1,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $191

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,344	-5% $1,338	+0% $1,332	+5% $1,327	+10% $1,321
Rent	-10% $1,184	-5% $1,258	+0% $1,332	+5% $1,407	+10% $1,481
Rate	-1.0pp $1,343	-0.5pp $1,338	base $1,332	+0.5pp $1,327	+1.0pp $1,322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4429 W 13th Ave Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	8d	1	0.57mi
1125 Dallas St Gary, IN	2.0	2.5	1872	$2,200	$1.18	2d	1	0.90mi
1368 Waite St Gary, IN	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,800	$1.06	2d	1	1.12mi
1348 Waite St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,850	$1.04	2d	1	1.13mi
2157 Marshall Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,295	$0.78	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $20,000 Active 74-char remark
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-16
   historical
5. 2026-02-02
   listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $16,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,002
• After-tax cash flow: $11,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• City population: 63,701
• Population (ZIP): 8,513

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.26%
• Current HPI: 147.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $20,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $20,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $454 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.