12930 Chrysanthemum Dr · Houston, TX 77085

$240,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2004 5,275 sqft lot Est $268k · 10% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 12930 Chrysanthemum Dr, a well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1,860 square feet of comfortable living space on a 5,275 square foot lot. Ideally located inside Beltway 8, this home provides convenient access for an easy commute. Recent updates include a brand-new roof (2024) and HVAC system (2025), giving peace of mind for years to come. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space to relax or entertain, while both front and back landscaping add to the home’s curb appeal. A great blend of location, updates, and functionality—ready to make your own.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Convenient access
• 5,275 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• RECENT UPDATES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• FRONT AND BACK LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hines-Caldwell (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 736 students, 92% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,274 students, 96% FRL); Madison H S (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,537 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,924 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 37 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,679/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 519% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12930 Chrysanthemum Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,860 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$129	99
12906 Yarrow Crest Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,860 (0%)	11mo	$267,000	$144	86
5618 Tiger Lilly Way	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,880 (+1%)	10mo	$280,000	$149	83
5535 N Tidewater Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	1,770 (-5%)	6mo	$255,000	$144	74
5726 Coastal Way	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+3%)	11mo	$285,000	$149	71
13606 Sunrose Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,920 (+3%)	4mo	$237,000	$123	64
6034 Valley Cove Ln	0.50mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,806 (-3%)	4mo	$279,999	$155	63
13135 Grassy Briar Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,799 (-3%)	3mo	$249,900	$139	60
6027 Nodaway Creek Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,136 (+15%)	0mo	$315,000	$147	49
6014 Pinacle Pt	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,044 (+10%)	2mo	$264,900	$130	49
13419 Candleshade Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	1,745 (-6%)	11mo	$224,700	$129	48
13419 Corinthian Pointe Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (-9%)	9mo	$289,990	$172	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.21% appreciation · 1.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,067
• Equity at exit: $55,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,894
• Equity at exit: $56,168

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77085

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,979/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $304	+0% $236	+5% $168	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $130	+0% $236	+5% $342	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $357	-0.5pp $297	base $236	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5234 Jorns St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,599	$1.26	22d	1	0.64mi
13003 Brentlawn Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$1,380	$0.80	14d	1	1.35mi
5751 Firenza Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$5,750	$3.24	1d	1	1.40mi
4749 Benning Dr Unit 1019531P Houston, TX	5.0	2.5	2066	$10,060	$4.87	44d	1	1.41mi
4749 Benning Dr Houston, TX	5.0	2.5	2077	$9,750	$4.69	44d	1	1.41mi
5815 Farwell Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2418	$2,200	$0.91	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-14
   listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,979 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,979 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$5,979
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $3,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,513
• Household income: $68,470
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Black 28% Two or more races 19% Native American 6% White 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Current HPI: 254.3084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $240,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,979 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.