8437 Carolwood Dr · Houston, TX 77028

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1950 6,952 sqft lot $114/sqft · 21% below area Est $189k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Key facts

• 6,952 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,644/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,288
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -20.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8402 Flintridge Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,287 (-2%)	2mo	$99,000	$77	89
8225 Carolwood Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (-8%)	4mo	$179,000	$149	66
8814 Shady Vista Ln Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (-8%)	6mo	$188,800	$157	55
8404 Shady Vista Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-10%)	8mo	$192,500	$163	53
8913 Linda Vista Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,266 (-3%)	4mo	$175,000	$138	53
8407 Shady Vista Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-10%)	10mo	$195,990	$166	52
7930 Carolwood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,366 (+4%)	3mo	$99,900	$73	52
8125 Darlington Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-8%)	14mo	$199,900	$167	48
8002 Carolwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+11%)	4mo	$194,900	$134	46
8546 Talton St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-14%)	10mo	$129,900	$116	36
8105 Laura Koppe Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+14%)	10mo	$300,000	$200	30
8837 Richland Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,132 (-14%)	14mo	$140,000	$124	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $50,666
• Equity at exit: $87,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $127,723
• Equity at exit: $152,357

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,851/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	43d	1	0.22mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,233	$1.21	13d	8	0.27mi
8216 Richland Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	0.34mi
8113 Denton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	0.37mi
8213 Linda Vista Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,625	$1.25	24d	1	0.38mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	43d	1	0.43mi
8638 Doris Oaks Cir Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1777	$1,975	$1.11	43d	1	0.48mi
8238 Homewood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,695	$1.00	24d	1	0.50mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	7d	1	0.53mi
8102 Crestview Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	43d	1	0.55mi
8102 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	22d	1	0.55mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	43d	1	0.61mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	18d	1	0.61mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.61mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.61mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.63mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.63mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.75mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	43d	1	0.80mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	0.84mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	0.89mi
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	7d	1	0.92mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	43d	1	0.94mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	43d	1	0.94mi
7804 Crestview Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	22d	1	0.95mi
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	3d	1	1.04mi
9137 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	20d	1	1.05mi
8158 Sunbury St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,525	$1.17	24d	1	1.06mi
7966 Henson St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,410	$0.88	43d	1	1.10mi
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	5d	1	1.10mi
7945 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,699	$1.31	5d	1	1.10mi
8135 Chateau St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1610	$1,645	$1.02	11d	1	1.14mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	1.16mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	1.18mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	43d	1	1.18mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	1.18mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	43d	1	1.19mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	22d	1	1.19mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,199	$1.34	1d	5	1.22mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-02-06
    listed $149,900 Active
13. 2005-11-14
    soldstatus
14. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,851 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$892/yr (+$74/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,851
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $3,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2005-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,851 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.