165 Paper Birch S · Hawley, PA 18464

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot $199/sqft · 7% above area Est $281k · 20% under $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in Tanglwood North, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the kind of setting people come to the Poconos for--peaceful, private, and just minutes to Lake Wallenpaupack with lake rights included. Set on a full acre, there's room to breathe, entertain, or just unwind on the deck after a day on the water. Inside, the bright living room flows easily into the dining area and a spacious kitchen, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living. Three light and airy bedrooms and a full bath are located on the main level, while the finished lower level with a second full bath adds flexible space for guests, a family room, or a home office. A one-car garage adds convenience, and the locati

Key facts

• Lake rights
• Full acre
• Finished lower level

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• FULL ACRE
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Tanglwood North community with lake amenities
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with beach rights; Annual association fee of $740; One-time association fee of $450 (derived monthly approx. $61.67)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Two levels; Single-family residence
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Lake Wallenpaupack view; Private maintained road; Private road frontage; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil fuel
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Partial, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Hawley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#898 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,747
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -19.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $30,737
• Equity at exit: $78,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $103,169
• Equity at exit: $106,366

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18464

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,486/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 844-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $225,000 Active 844-char remark
3. 2025-10-21
   price $242,000
4. 2025-08-23
   listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,021 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 21.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,486
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,344
• − Management: −$2,344
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $4,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hawley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #898
• US rank: #9570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,455

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Current HPI: 240.5805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $225,000 PWMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $242,000 PWMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $249,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,486 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.