JULIA Plan · Fairhope, AL 36532

$301,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily · 555 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 555 days

🏗️ New construction. The $301,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,675.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $301k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 859 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 555 days — a 12% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,667 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 555 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,675
• List price: $301,400
• Delta: -0.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16145 Tigris Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+1%)	1mo	$332,448	$230	91
16348 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+1%)	10mo	$290,675	$201	89
16250 Tigris Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,430 (0%)	8mo	$301,037	$211	88
16313 Tigris Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-1%)	9mo	$295,450	$209	84
16255 Tigris Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (-1%)	6mo	$304,461	$216	83
16221 Tigris Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (-1%)	9mo	$302,961	$214	80
16817 Tigris Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-10%)	3mo	$295,424	$231	76
16291 Tigris Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-10%)	7mo	$289,900	$226	74
16267 Tigris Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	10mo	$269,000	$179	74
16207 Tigris Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+5%)	10mo	$312,036	$207	72
16233 Tigris Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-10%)	10mo	$276,900	$216	69
16775 Old Pierce Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,635 (+14%)	10mo	$369,250	$226	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,841
• Equity at exit: $45,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,730
• Equity at exit: $26,256

Cash invested: $85,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,018 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 859
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,593
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,555/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $284,262

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-29	+0% $-134	+5% $-239	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-331	-5% $-232	+0% $-134	+5% $-36	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-57	base $-134	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,919
• Closing costs: $9,110
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	62d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $301,400 Active 555 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,400 Active 553 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,400 Active 552 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,400 Active 551 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,400 Active 550 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,400 Active 546 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,400 Active 545 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,400 Active 544 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,400 Active 543 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,400 Active 542 DOM
11. 2026-03-12
    price $299,400 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorb

12. 2026-01-20
    price $298,900 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorb

13. 2025-11-11
    price $297,900 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorb

14. 2025-08-08
    price $296,900 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorb

15. 2024-12-04
    listed $294,900 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Introducing the Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates, our brand-new Fairhope community. The Julia is a one-story floor plan and is sure to catch your attention. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,430 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. Enjoy beautiful and low-maintenance EVP flooring throughout this home. The kitchen is fully equipped with modern cabinets, granite countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for all your storageneeds. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for family and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. Perfect for relaxation or entertainment, the outdoor area includes a covered patio and backyard. Contact us to learn more and visit Cottonwood Estates today! Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorb

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,011
• − Property taxes: −$4,555
• − Insurance: −$1,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − Depreciation: −$8,834
• Taxable loss: −$6,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Julia floorplan in Cottonwood Estates is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a move-in-ready home with potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary J Larry Newton School C+ AL #74/627 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle Fairhope Middle School A- AL #3/257 Nat'l #1,272/14,009 High Fairhope High School F AL #22/305 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $299,400 Zillow
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $298,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $297,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $296,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-04 Listed $294,900 Zillow