9500 Marina Ave · Gulf Park Estates, MS 39564

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1990 0.52 ac lot $81/sqft · 29% below area Est $280k · 29% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent opportunity for buyers with vision! This property will require significant renovation, but it sits on a large double lot in a highly desirable area. Ideal for those utilizing an FHA 203(k) renovation loan or seeking a rewarding project. With the right updates, this property has the potential to become a true standout in the neighborhood.

Key facts

• Large double lot
• 0.52 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE DOUBLE LOT
• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.2% in Gulf Park Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#43 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 60% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.83%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,432
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -28.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3225 Red Bluff Cir	0.23mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (+1%)	9mo	$475,000	$190	73
3300 N 1st St	0.20mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,264 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$144	68
9404 Live Oak Ave	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,582 (+4%)	15mo	$415,000	$161	68
3200 Magnolia Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,774 (+12%)	2mo	$379,500	$137	64
9605 Oakcrest Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,120 (-14%)	3mo	$317,500	$150	62
3801 Tangerine St	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,500 (+1%)	4mo	$299,900	$120	60
3333 Pine Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (-9%)	13mo	$515,000	$230	57
9117 Marina Ave	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (-7%)	17mo	$264,500	$115	50
3516 N 5th St	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,307 (-7%)	10mo	$299,500	$130	49
8812 Old Walnut Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,260 (-9%)	6mo	$299,000	$132	44
146 Pittman Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,242 (-9%)	14mo	$639,975	$285	34
9000 Spring Ave	0.67mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,838 (+15%)	11mo	$375,000	$132	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,501
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $46,783
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3305 N 8th St Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,250	$1.25	20d	1	0.64mi
106 Booth Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	13d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-09
    status Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Excellent opportunity for buyers with vision! This property will require significant renovation, but it sits on a large double lot in a highly desirable area. Ideal for those utilizing an FHA 203(k) renovation loan or seeking a rewarding project. With the right updates, this property has the potential to become a true standout in the neighborhood.

16. 2026-01-09
    price $200,000 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Excellent opportunity for buyers with vision! This property will require significant renovation, but it sits on a large double lot in a highly desirable area. Ideal for those utilizing an FHA 203(k) renovation loan or seeking a rewarding project. With the right updates, this property has the potential to become a true standout in the neighborhood.

17. 2025-11-23
    status Pending 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Excellent opportunity for buyers with vision! This property will require significant renovation, but it sits on a large double lot in a highly desirable area. Ideal for those utilizing an FHA 203(k) renovation loan or seeking a rewarding project. With the right updates, this property has the potential to become a true standout in the neighborhood.

18. 2025-11-14
    listed $125,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Excellent opportunity for buyers with vision! This property will require significant renovation, but it sits on a large double lot in a highly desirable area. Ideal for those utilizing an FHA 203(k) renovation loan or seeking a rewarding project. With the right updates, this property has the potential to become a true standout in the neighborhood.

19. 2019-07-22
    soldstatus 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    PRICED BELOW CURRENT APPRAISAL! Sparkling clean & move-in ready! Completely remodeled and updated inside and out, spacious home in quiet, tree-shaded area of Gulf Park Estates. Large kitchen w/room for an island, 3 cm solid granite counter tops, loads of cabinets, new 5-burner gas range, deep stainless sink w/pull down faucet. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 4 living areas! Beautiful, durable, easy care wood-look vinyl plank floors throughout home. Energy efficient windows, new exterior doors, and spray foam insulation under home create comfortable, quiet living. All new ceiling fans/light fixtures & designer faucets throughout. Professionally landscaped. Fenced yard, wood deck and 3 gates to access back yard. Double wooded lot parcel is approximately .51 acre. Desirable Ocean Springs schools.

20. 2018-11-10
    listed $219,900 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    PRICED BELOW CURRENT APPRAISAL! Sparkling clean & move-in ready! Completely remodeled and updated inside and out, spacious home in quiet, tree-shaded area of Gulf Park Estates. Large kitchen w/room for an island, 3 cm solid granite counter tops, loads of cabinets, new 5-burner gas range, deep stainless sink w/pull down faucet. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 4 living areas! Beautiful, durable, easy care wood-look vinyl plank floors throughout home. Energy efficient windows, new exterior doors, and spray foam insulation under home create comfortable, quiet living. All new ceiling fans/light fixtures & designer faucets throughout. Professionally landscaped. Fenced yard, wood deck and 3 gates to access back yard. Double wooded lot parcel is approximately .51 acre. Desirable Ocean Springs schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $5,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,282
• After-tax cash flow: $7,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Park Estates

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #7955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Park Estates, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $200,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-11-14 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2019-07-22 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-11-10 Listed $219,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,432 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.