3774 Willow Lane Dr · Montgomery, AL 36109

$159,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1960 0.34 ac lot $115/sqft · 44% above area Est $118k · 36% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome HOME to this beautifully maintained Forest Hills property! This four-bedroom, three bathrooms home has space for your whole family! A large family room with built-ins and an electric fireplace welcomes you to come on in! The family room currently has plush carpet, but there's hardwood floors underneath if that suits you better. In the kitchen you'll find vinyl plank flooring, a separate breakfast bar area that can also be used for food prep or a buffet station. The main bedroom is on the carport side of the house, while the other three bedrooms are on the other side. A jack and jill bathroom conveniently join two of the three guest bedrooms. Out back will provide endless opportun

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Large patio
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• JACK AND JILL BATHROOM
• COVERED DECK
• LARGE PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: One-story brick home; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Fully fenced yard; Storage; Mature trees; Subdivision; City lot; Public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom(s) on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Dual system heating
• Interior features: Blinds; Linen closet; Separate shower; Window treatments; Breakfast bar; Electric ventless fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flowers Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 394 students, 74% FRL); Goodwyn Middle School (math 0% / reading 16%, grade F, #239 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 808 students, 84% FRL); Lee High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,374 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,039 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,784
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 35.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
664 Joryne Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-2%)	1mo	$129,000	$95	69
403 Nottingham Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (+5%)	0mo	$39,901	$28	64
3602 Little John Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (-7%)	4mo	$65,000	$51	63
508 Forest Hills Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,267 (-8%)	1mo	$55,500	$44	57
3326 Vermont Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+13%)	2mo	$80,000	$51	53
47 Salem Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,419 (+2%)	3mo	$162,500	$115	52
3 Kent St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (-6%)	1mo	$102,750	$79	49
3700 Ramos Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-11%)	3mo	$134,400	$109	48
887 Greg Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+8%)	2mo	$150,000	$101	44
3518 N Wareingwood Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (-8%)	3mo	$119,500	$94	40
968 Karen Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,221 (-12%)	4mo	$92,000	$75	33
3556 N Wareingwood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-12%)	3mo	$71,500	$59	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,898
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,161
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36109

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $290	+0% $245	+5% $200	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $186	+0% $245	+5% $305	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $286	base $245	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3602 Little John Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.0	1286	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.19mi
3515 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1246	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.21mi
118 Nottingham Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,275	$0.95	45d	1	0.22mi
3309 Hillcrest Ln Unit 1043908P Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1625	$2,885	$1.78	23d	1	0.24mi
3233 Hillcrest Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,395	$1.09	23d	1	0.26mi
239 Forest Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1500	$1,450	$0.97	23d	1	0.27mi
3334 Cottonwood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,295	$1.26	15d	1	0.28mi
3329 Vermont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1465	$1,395	$0.95	15d	1	0.30mi
401 Ridgewood Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,195	$0.79	23d	1	0.36mi
3319 Willow Lane Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,200	$1.16	45d	1	0.38mi
688 Joryne Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	0.43mi
3692 Fairfield Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,400	$0.92	23d	1	0.51mi
817 Dumont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	0.56mi
926 Green Ridge Ct Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,381	$0.83	15d	1	0.56mi
860 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	15d	1	0.60mi
844 Sir Michael Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1502	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	0.63mi
107 Dalraida Rd Unit A Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1237	$1,200	$0.97	45d	1	0.68mi
67 Holliday Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.68mi
122 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1092	$975	$0.89	23d	1	0.69mi
895 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,600	$1.07	15d	1	0.71mi
908 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,100	$0.72	23d	1	0.73mi
311 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1104	$825	$0.75	45d	1	0.74mi
167 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,050	$0.62	45d	1	0.76mi
18 Oak Forest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,050	$0.66	23d	1	0.77mi
3456 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	0.77mi
186 E Salem Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	23d	1	0.79mi
15 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,500	$1.10	23d	1	0.80mi
200 Eton Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1500	$895	$0.60	15d	1	0.81mi
3105 Pelzer Ave Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,425	$0.89	45d	1	0.81mi
7 Bradley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,500	$0.98	15d	1	0.82mi
3323 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	23d	1	0.84mi
3359 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,600	$0.90	15d	1	0.85mi
3346 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,295	$1.14	15d	1	0.85mi
1117 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,195	$0.91	45d	1	0.89mi
4046 Camellia Dr Unit 1 Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	0.89mi
3136 Harrison Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.5	1355	$1,025	$0.76	45d	1	0.97mi
1154 Lakewood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.98mi
4056 Wares Ferry Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,500	$0.83	15d	1	1.00mi
3462 Biltmore Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,225	$0.73	23d	1	1.02mi
3318 Habersham Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,250	$1.10	15d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $159,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $164,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $169,900 Active 797-char remark
19. 2001-12-31
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$73
• After-tax cash flow: $2,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,581
• Household income: $59,193
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.64%
• Current HPI: 149.3867
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $159,900 MAAR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $164,900 MAAR
• 2026-05-04 Listed $169,900 MAAR
• 2001-12-31 Listed $79,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.