2200 Hilda Ann Rd · Crystal Springs, FL 33540

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1992 2.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COUNTRY LIVING AT IT'S BEST! This home has the appearance of a log cabin with a large welcoming front porch and is turn key ready. 3 Bedroom, 2 bath plus an office is newly remodeled and features a gorgouse kitchen with a large island, wood cabinets, granite counter tops and stainless steal appliances. Nice master suite with a hough master bath that features a large walk in shower with dual shower heads and a custom double vanity with decorative glass bowl sinks. The home also has a large inside utility room. This all sits on 2.25 acres which has a 36x24 Barn with a loft, 2 12x12 stalls and a feed room with power and water. Also a covered 30 x 20 work area and an enclosed 19x20 workshop with water and power.

Key facts

• Wide front porch
• Large dining space
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• WIDE FRONT PORCH
• GENEROUS INTERIOR SPACE
• LARGE DINING SPACE
• WELL-LAID-OUT KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.8% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#687 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.36%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40803 Sutorus Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-6%)	12mo	$250,000	$154	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $19,433
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $68,074
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,660/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2019-08-20
   status Pending
4. 2019-08-20
   status Active
5. 2019-08-20
   historical
6. 2019-02-21
   status Pending
7. 2019-02-21
   price $50,000
8. 2019-02-21
   historical
9. 2019-02-14
   listed $20,000 Active
10. 2011-11-01
    soldstatus $105,000 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT IT'S BEST! This home has the appearance of a log cabin with a large welcoming front porch and is turn key ready. 3 Bedroom, 2 bath plus an office is newly remodeled and features a gorgouse kitchen with a large island, wood cabinets, granite counter tops and stainless steal appliances. Nice master suite with a hough master bath that features a large walk in shower with dual shower heads and a custom double vanity with decorative glass bowl sinks. The home also has a large inside utility room. This all sits on 2.25 acres which has a 36x24 Barn with a loft, 2 12x12 stalls and a feed room with power and water. Also a covered 30 x 20 work area and an enclosed 19x20 workshop with water and power.

11. 2011-09-02
    listed $99,000 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT IT'S BEST! This home has the appearance of a log cabin with a large welcoming front porch and is turn key ready. 3 Bedroom, 2 bath plus an office is newly remodeled and features a gorgouse kitchen with a large island, wood cabinets, granite counter tops and stainless steal appliances. Nice master suite with a hough master bath that features a large walk in shower with dual shower heads and a custom double vanity with decorative glass bowl sinks. The home also has a large inside utility room. This all sits on 2.25 acres which has a 36x24 Barn with a loft, 2 12x12 stalls and a feed room with power and water. Also a covered 30 x 20 work area and an enclosed 19x20 workshop with water and power.

12. 2009-08-24
    soldstatus $42,655
13. 2009-03-13
    listed $44,900
14. 2007-09-27
    listed $129,000
15. 2007-09-25
    historical
16. 2007-09-05
    listed $145,000
17. 2003-01-29
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,660
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,396
• After-tax cash flow: $6,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #14320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-11-19 Listed $125,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-08-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-21 Price Changed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-14 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-01 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-02 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-24 Sold (MLS) $42,655 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-13 Listed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-27 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-05 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,660 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.