2970 Valley St · Norton Shores, MI 49444

$127,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1942 0.26 ac lot Est $134k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom in Norton Shores! Just minutes away from the highway, this home is currently priced under market value. Nice fenced in back yard and detached garage. Located across the street from the Getty Drive-In movie theatre. Home is in need of some TLC but is a great value for the location.

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• Detached garage
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available; Natural gas water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1942; Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (11 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (10 x 8)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Additional bathroom (10 x 10); Additional bathroom (9 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Home has heating
• Interior features: Accessible kitchen; Main-floor accessible bedroom; Storm windows and replacement windows; Window treatments; 5 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($979/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.3% in Norton Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#310 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Muskegon Public Schools Of The City Of (urban): math 4% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #534 of 540 in MI (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Muskegon Middle School (math 4% / reading 13%, grade F, #480 of 493 statewide, top 97%, 755 students, 87% FRL); Muskegon High School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #632 of 713 statewide, top 89%, 1,039 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,981 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2720 Worden St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	804 (+2%)	2mo	$105,250	$131	63
1312 E Broadway Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	834 (+5%)	6mo	$156,000	$187	58
2847 Mc Dermott St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (+10%)	3mo	$148,000	$169	57
2754 Huizenga St	0.28mi	3/1.0	900 (+14%)	9mo	$115,000	$128	56
2921 Continental St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	902 (+14%)	13mo	$97,900	$109	53
3142 Bailey St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (+5%)	20mo	$175,000	$210	53
2748 Valk St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	690 (-13%)	4mo	$110,000	$159	46
2731 Valk St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	680 (-14%)	4mo	$152,900	$225	45
2698 Roberts St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	12mo	$118,500	$169	42
3157 Woodcliffe Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	896 (+13%)	18mo	$140,000	$156	42
2694 Worden St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	836 (+6%)	20mo	$95,900	$115	40
1480 E Summit Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	675 (-15%)	16mo	$116,000	$172	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-15,488
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,633
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49444

• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,312/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $118	+0% $82	+5% $45	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $32	+0% $82	+5% $132	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $114	base $82	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3223 Bailey St Norton Shores, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1096	$1,319	$1.20	23d	1	0.37mi
232 E Lincoln Ave Muskegon, MI	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,100	$1.08	23d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $127,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $127,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $127,900 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    3 bedroom in Norton Shores! Just minutes away from the highway, this home is currently priced under market value. Nice fenced in back yard and detached garage. Located across the street from the Getty Drive-In movie theatre. Home is in need of some TLC but is a great value for the location.

19. 2026-05-29
    listed $127,900 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    3 bedroom in Norton Shores! Just minutes away from the highway, this home is currently priced under market value. Nice fenced in back yard and detached garage. Located across the street from the Getty Drive-In movie theatre. Home is in need of some TLC but is a great value for the location.

20. 2026-05-29
    listed $127,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    3 bedroom in Norton Shores! Just minutes away from the highway, this home is currently priced under market value. Nice fenced in back yard and detached garage. Located across the street from the Getty Drive-In movie theatre. Home is in need of some TLC but is a great value for the location.

21. 2026-05-15
    historical
22. 2026-05-08
    price $109,900
23. 2026-05-08
    price $109,900
24. 2026-05-08
    price $109,900
25. 2026-04-19
    listed $119,900 Active
26. 2026-04-19
    listed $119,900 Active
27. 2021-03-18
    soldstatus $89,000
28. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus $89,000 Sold
29. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus $89,000 Sold
30. 2021-01-24
    status Pending
31. 2021-01-24
    status Pending
32. 2021-01-21
    price $89,500
33. 2021-01-21
    price $89,500
34. 2020-12-04
    listed $94,500 Active
35. 2020-12-04
    listed $94,500 Active
36. 2020-12-04
    listed $89,500
37. 1995-03-17
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,312
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable loss: −$1,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$264
• After-tax cash flow: $1,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muskegon Public Schools Of The City Of
• NCES district ID: 2624840
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $27,622
• Composite: 5.8/100
• National rank: #10017
• State rank: #534 of 540 in MI

Livability — Norton Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #7620

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Norton Shores, MI
• County: Muskegon County · 107,917 people
• City population: 26,372
• Metro: Muskegon, MI
• Population (ZIP): 26,372
• Household income: $53,054
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Muskegon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,032 people
• By 2030: 173,365 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 168,877 · -3.0%
• By 2050: 160,306 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 134,426 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 98,836 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskegon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.4% · R 50.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.6 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+17.8 2008: D+29.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.02%
• Current HPI: 209.2698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Muskegon, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+327.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $127,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $127,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Listed $127,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-19 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $89,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $89,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-24 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-01-24 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-01-21 Price Changed $89,500 REALCOMP
• 2021-01-21 Price Changed $89,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-12-04 Listed $89,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-12-04 Listed $94,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-12-04 Listed $94,500 REALCOMP
• 1995-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,312 · +39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.