16 Arizona Dr · Decatur, IL 62526

$73,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1955 8,683 sqft lot Est $117k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on Northend of Decatur, this ranch style home offers tons of potential. The interior offers a living room, eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The unfinished basement has potential for additional living space. Other amenities include an attached carport, side driveway for extra parking and a storage shed. Tons of potential at an affordable price! This property may qualify for seller Financing(vendee). There are now multiple offers, Highest & Best Hold Period active - expires 03/27/2026 01:00 PM CST

Key facts

• Side driveway
• Attached carport
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• SIDE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $508 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,397 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.22%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Northland Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	16mo	$75,000	$78	71
68 Northland Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	9mo	$65,000	$63	70
131 Nevada Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	19mo	$145,000	$151	66
102 Colorado Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	20mo	$85,000	$89	66
22 Grays Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	994 (+4%)	8mo	$120,900	$122	61
351 Wiley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	21mo	$125,000	$124	61
36 N Lynette Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$142,000	$134	56
3516 Macarthur Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+12%)	19mo	$144,500	$135	44
18 Grays Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	14mo	$79,900	$73	40
2724 Church St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-15%)	3mo	$28,000	$34	40
28 Josephine Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	818 (-15%)	10mo	$144,000	$176	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $12,656
• Equity at exit: $13,559

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $41,765
• Equity at exit: $10,912

Cash invested: $20,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$385
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $73,500

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $368	+0% $347	+5% $326	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $302	+0% $347	+5% $391	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $365	base $347	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,375
• Closing costs: $2,205
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 E Pierson Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	895	$1,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.06mi
2148 N Graceland Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	44d	1	1.20mi
1350 E Wellington Way Unit 1330-3A Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	858	$825	$0.96	44d	1	1.24mi
1908 N Union St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	704	$899	$1.28	44d	1	1.35mi
927 E Harrison Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$675	$0.94	22d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Situated on Northend of Decatur, this ranch style home offers tons of potential. The interior offers a living room, eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The unfinished basement has potential for additional living space. Other amenities include an attached carport, side driveway for extra parking and a storage shed. Tons of potential at an affordable price! This property may qualify for seller Financing(vendee). There are now multiple offers, Highest & Best Hold Period active - expires 03/27/2026 01:00 PM CST

2. 2026-04-08
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Situated on Northend of Decatur, this ranch style home offers tons of potential. The interior offers a living room, eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The unfinished basement has potential for additional living space. Other amenities include an attached carport, side driveway for extra parking and a storage shed. Tons of potential at an affordable price! This property may qualify for seller Financing(vendee). There are now multiple offers, Highest & Best Hold Period active - expires 03/27/2026 01:00 PM CST

3. 2026-03-15
   listed $73,500 Active 525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Situated on Northend of Decatur, this ranch style home offers tons of potential. The interior offers a living room, eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The unfinished basement has potential for additional living space. Other amenities include an attached carport, side driveway for extra parking and a storage shed. Tons of potential at an affordable price! This property may qualify for seller Financing(vendee). There are now multiple offers, Highest & Best Hold Period active - expires 03/27/2026 01:00 PM CST

4. 2026-03-15
   listed $73,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (525 chars)

   Situated on Northend of Decatur, this ranch style home offers tons of potential. The interior offers a living room, eat-in kitchen, 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. The unfinished basement has potential for additional living space. Other amenities include an attached carport, side driveway for extra parking and a storage shed. Tons of potential at an affordable price! This property may qualify for seller Financing(vendee). There are now multiple offers, Highest & Best Hold Period active - expires 03/27/2026 01:00 PM CST

5. 2023-12-07
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2023-12-06
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

7. 2023-10-31
   status Pending 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

8. 2023-10-14
   historical Active Under Contract 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

9. 2023-10-14
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

10. 2023-10-09
    listed $88,000 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

11. 2023-10-09
    listed Active

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    You will appreciate the conveniences with this 3 bedroom ranch home on a corner lot on the north end of town. It is conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and public transportation. The appliances (including the washer and dryer) stay and this house is ready for the buyer to simply move in and call it "Home. " The carport is large enough for two vehicles or for one car and other amenities. There is extra parking adjacent to the carport and an 8x12 shed provides ample storage space as well. The replacement windows, ac less than 3 years, newer furnace and water heater, and a dry basement make this property a low maintenance ranch, perfect for a starter home or a great place to relax and downsize. Priced to sell. Schedule your tour today! Selling As Is

12. 2014-04-14
    soldstatus $65,000
13. 2014-04-10
    soldstatus $65,000
14. 2014-04-10
    soldstatus $65,000
15. 2013-09-27
    listed $65,900
16. 2013-09-27
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,492 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$2,138
• Taxable income: $3,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $3,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+11.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-04-08 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Listed $73,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Listed $73,500 CIBR
• 2023-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-06 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CIBR
• 2023-10-31 Pending — CIBR
• 2023-10-14 Contingent — CIBR
• 2023-10-14 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Listed $88,000 CIBR
• 2014-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-10 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CIBR
• 2014-04-10 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-27 Listed $65,900 CIBR
• 2013-09-27 Listed $65,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,492 · +63.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.