444 N Clay Ave Unit 2C · Kirkwood, MO 63122

$130,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1971 $250/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One bedroom, one bath ground level unit in Kirkwood. Storage unit. Common laundry facilities in lower level.Close to restaurants and shops. Condo fee includes, Landscaping/Lawn, Parking/Roads, Sewer, Snow Removal, Trash, Water

Key facts

• $250 HOA
• Built 1971
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Chestnut Run Apartments; HOA fee $250 monthly (includes management); Association amenities: None

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Three or more levels; Above-grade living area approximately 720
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Adjoins common ground

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.4% in Kirkwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#27 in MO, #2,478 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Kirkwood R-VII (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: F. P. Tillman Elem. (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #88 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 474 students, 6% FRL); Kirkwood Sr. High (math 72% / reading 79%, grade A-, #3 of 521 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.69%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,877
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $87,393
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63122

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $513	+0% $476	+5% $439	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $398	+0% $476	+5% $554	+10% $632
Rate	-1.0pp $542	-0.5pp $509	base $476	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 N Kirkwood Rd St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,778	$3.12	2d	6	0.14mi
203 Monclay Ct Unit 2E Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	555	$1,125	$2.03	24d	1	0.45mi
141 E Madison Ave Kirkwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,549	$1.52	2d	9	0.45mi
467 S Holmes Ave Unit B Kirkwood, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical $135,000 449-char remark
2. 2020-08-04
   soldstatus $90,000
3. 2020-06-29
   status Pending 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   One bedroom, one bath ground level unit in Kirkwood. Storage unit. Common laundry facilities in lower level.Close to restaurants and shops. Condo fee includes, Landscaping/Lawn, Parking/Roads, Sewer, Snow Removal, Trash, Water

4. 2020-06-23
   soldstatus Closed 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   One bedroom, one bath ground level unit in Kirkwood. Storage unit. Common laundry facilities in lower level.Close to restaurants and shops. Condo fee includes, Landscaping/Lawn, Parking/Roads, Sewer, Snow Removal, Trash, Water

5. 2020-05-08
   historical Active Under Contract 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   One bedroom, one bath ground level unit in Kirkwood. Storage unit. Common laundry facilities in lower level.Close to restaurants and shops. Condo fee includes, Landscaping/Lawn, Parking/Roads, Sewer, Snow Removal, Trash, Water

6. 2020-03-02
   listed $95,000 Active 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   One bedroom, one bath ground level unit in Kirkwood. Storage unit. Common laundry facilities in lower level.Close to restaurants and shops. Condo fee includes, Landscaping/Lawn, Parking/Roads, Sewer, Snow Removal, Trash, Water

7. 2004-02-13
   soldstatus
8. 2003-07-28
   soldstatus $70,000
9. 2003-03-28
   soldstatus $66,500
10. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$964
• After-tax cash flow: $4,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirkwood R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2916770
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $85,581
• Composite: 56.51/100
• National rank: #1153
• State rank: #5 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirkwood

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #2478

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirkwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 41,634
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 41,634
• Household income: $136,385
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 738.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -413.98%
• Current HPI: 242.2782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+95.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-08 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-02 Listed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,183 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.