15726 Avalon Ave · South Holland, IL 60473

$194,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1964 7,500 sqft lot Est $139k · 39% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Frame split level single-family property located in well- kept neighborhood and walking distance to Metra Downtown Chicago Station. Property features hardwood floors, 4bed/1.1 baths and attached 2 cars garage. Beautifully redeveloped home!!!!

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Large front porch
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#167 in IL, #3,071 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Beginnings Learning Academy (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,741 of 2,056 statewide, top 93%, 326 students, 0% FRL); Creative Communications Acad (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #660 of 665 statewide, top 100%, 177 students, 0% FRL); Thornridge High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #589 of 693 statewide, top 86%, 1,057 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $131k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.

Recommended offer $170,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.50%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15722 Woodlawn East Ave	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,015 (-1%)	1mo	$101,000	$100	95
15634 Avalon Ave	0.11mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,029 (+0%)	1mo	$115,000	$112	88
15539 Minerva Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+2%)	2mo	$134,000	$128	82
1340 Prince Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+4%)	2mo	$160,000	$150	77
15519 Ellis Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-0%)	4mo	$133,000	$130	72
16001 Avalon Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+11%)	1mo	$187,500	$165	59
15726 Ingleside Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,171 (+14%)	5mo	$220,000	$188	53
15509 Rose Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+7%)	1mo	$135,000	$123	49
15325 Dorchester Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	909 (-11%)	6mo	$123,649	$136	49
930 E 161 Pl	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+14%)	6mo	$149,574	$129	45
15519 Gouwens Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+12%)	6mo	$216,000	$187	44
749 E 154th St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+11%)	4mo	$230,000	$201	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,119
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,362
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60473

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$760 /mo · $9,118/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $855	-5% $258	+0% $203	+5% $149	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $100	+0% $203	+5% $307	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $253	base $203	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	8d	1	0.31mi
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	10d	1	0.60mi
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	0d	1	0.71mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	27d	1	0.89mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	10d	1	0.89mi
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.96mi
515 E End Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,275	$1.40	0d	1	1.05mi
659 Paxton Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,461	$1.96	12d	1	1.09mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	13d	1	1.23mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1418	$2,500	$1.76	27d	1	1.23mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	12d	1	1.26mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	6d	1	1.28mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	21d	1	1.28mi
14817 Champlain Ave Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,430	$2.48	24d	1	1.36mi
405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	973	$2,300	$2.36	0d	1	1.39mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	8d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $194,000
3. 2026-01-29
   status Active
4. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-09
   price $196,000
6. 2025-12-05
   price $202,000
7. 2025-11-14
   price $208,000
8. 2025-10-24
   listed $214,000 Active
9. 2025-10-24
   historical
10. 2025-10-17
    price
11. 2025-09-26
    price
12. 2025-09-19
    price
13. 2025-09-12
    price
14. 2025-09-05
    price
15. 2025-08-29
    price
16. 2025-08-21
    price
17. 2025-08-15
    price
18. 2025-08-08
    price
19. 2025-07-24
    listed Active
20. 2018-01-09
    soldstatus $131,000
21. 2012-09-18
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed Sale 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Frame split level single-family property located in well- kept neighborhood and walking distance to Metra Downtown Chicago Station. Property features hardwood floors, 4bed/1.1 baths and attached 2 cars garage. Beautifully redeveloped home!!!!

22. 2012-07-23
    listed Contingent 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Frame split level single-family property located in well- kept neighborhood and walking distance to Metra Downtown Chicago Station. Property features hardwood floors, 4bed/1.1 baths and attached 2 cars garage. Beautifully redeveloped home!!!!

23. 2012-07-11
    soldstatus $35,100 Closed Sale
24. 2012-03-28
    status Pending
25. 2012-03-21
    historical Contingent
26. 2012-03-15
    status Reactivated
27. 2012-03-08
    status Pending
28. 2012-03-02
    price $29,900 Price Change
29. 2012-02-08
    listed $39,900 New
30. 2009-07-04
    historical
31. 2009-06-23
    price
32. 2009-03-06
    price
33. 2008-07-04
    listed
34. 2007-07-17
    soldstatus $240,000
35. 1998-05-12
    soldstatus $113,000
36. 1998-05-12
    soldstatus $161,000
37. 1990-09-01
    soldstatus $72,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,118 · $760/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,118 · $760/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$9,118
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Holland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #3071

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Holland, IL
• City population: 21,407
• Population (ZIP): 21,407

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.36%
• Current HPI: 201.2479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+166.1% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $194,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $196,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $202,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $208,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed $214,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-18 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-11 Sold (MLS) $35,100 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-28 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-21 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-15 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-02 Price Changed $29,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-08 Listed $39,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-23 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-06 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $9,118 · +51.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.