6430 Dysartsville Rd · Nebo, NC 28655

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quiet gated home, private and secure. New roof and well, water filtration system, pine ceilings throughout, front porch, 10x14 shed, needs minor TLC Move-in ready

Key facts

• Pine ceilings
• Gated home
• Front porch

Tags

• GATED HOME
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• PINE CEILINGS
• FRONT PORCH
• 10X14 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (33.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Young Elementary (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 306 students, 78% FRL); Table Rock Middle (math 36% / reading 43%, grade F, #232 of 475 statewide, top 50%, 502 students, 70% FRL); Freedom High (math 61% / reading 51%, grade C, #264 of 535 statewide, top 49%, 1,414 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,910 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-49,459
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-70,153
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,893/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $116,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-282	+0% $-332	+5% $-381	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-377	+0% $-332	+5% $-287	+10% $-242
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-287	base $-332	+0.5pp $-377	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,893
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Nebo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,893 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.