2128 Red Bud Way · Schertz, TX 78154

$30,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 2015

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Its a nice mobile home next to all the newer mobile homes in schertz windy meadows, easy access to 35

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2015
• Construction: Living area approximately 1216
• Exterior features: Located in the Northeast Side subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 48.3% vs local median 2.8% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 48.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 150.20%
• DSCR: 7.68
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.84×
• Total profit: $57,456
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.08×
• Total profit: $118,310
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78154

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $1,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
381 Meadow View Dr Schertz, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,479	$1.40	10d	1	0.23mi
400 Mitchell Ave Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,450	$1.31	17d	1	0.76mi
945 Schertz Pkwy Unit 4 Schertz, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,290	$1.34	23d	1	0.85mi
2413 Star Light Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.86mi
2501 Cedar Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,750	$1.44	23d	1	0.91mi
203 Brooks Ave Schertz, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,290	$1.43	10d	1	0.92mi
3316 Windway Crk Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,750	$1.32	14d	1	1.00mi
2713 Lockwood Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,595	$1.12	2d	1	1.01mi
101 Deerglen Ave Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	23d	1	1.03mi
2801 Hillview Ln Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,745	$1.17	23d	1	1.06mi
512 Curtiss Ave Schertz, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$997	$1.19	20d	1	1.07mi
400 Pfeil St Unit 400 Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,280	$1.07	3d	1	1.08mi
514 Curtiss Ave Schertz, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$997	$1.19	20d	1	1.08mi
704 Curtiss Ave Schertz, TX	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	14d	1	1.09mi
704 Curtiss Ave Schertz, TX	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	12d	1	1.09mi
221 Scott Ave Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,500	$1.32	4d	1	1.22mi
317 North Blvd Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,095	$1.40	1d	1	1.23mi
501 FM 3009 Schertz, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,229	$2.55	19d	18	1.43mi
501 Farm to Market Road 3009 Unit 710 Schertz, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,423	$1.48	3d	1	1.44mi
317 E Lindbergh Blvd Universal City, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,100	$1.52	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $30,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $12,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,098
• After-tax cash flow: $9,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839480
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,790
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2886
• State rank: #152 of 826 in TX

Livability — Schertz

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #5013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schertz, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 41,907
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,907
• Household income: $100,572
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 19% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.53%
• Current HPI: 222.8314
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $30,000 FSBO.com