547 Alden # 17 Rd #17 · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2007 3,000 sqft lot $136/sqft · 6% above area Est $152k · 6% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Big Bear Mobile Estates, a great opportunity to own in a well-established mobile home community right in the heart of Big Bear. Centrally located and conveniently walkable to the Village, the lake, restaurants, and local shops, this home puts you close to everything Big Bear has to offer. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, a practical kitchen and dining area, and well-sized bedrooms—ideal for full-time living or a low-maintenance mountain retreat. Enjoy the ease of community living with the added benefit of an unbeatable location. Park approval is required. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, and any community guidelines. Don’t miss your chance to own in one of Big Bear’s most convenient locations—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Practical kitchen
• Functional layout
• Unbeatable location

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY WALKABLE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN
• UNBEATABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.32%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,500
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 5.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41150 Lahontan Dr Unit C1	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,241 (+5%)	3mo	$162,000	$131	71
41150 Lahontan Unit B7	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	1mo	$141,000	$134	68
547 Alden Rd #4	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-12%)	17mo	$95,000	$91	66
547 Alden Rd #31	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-10%)	23mo	$185,000	$175	58
786 Eureka Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	18mo	$425,000	$316	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,498
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $42,393
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
365 Jeffries Rd Unit C Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.5	780	$1,675	$2.15	44d	1	0.47mi
933 Cameron Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	4d	1	0.55mi
40504 Big Bear Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	44d	1	0.59mi
40409 Big Bear Blvd Unit 3 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	44d	1	0.70mi
524 Wanita Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.96mi
524 Wanita Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.96mi
40158 Hillcrest Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,150	$2.08	44d	1	1.07mi
600 Summit Blvd Unit A Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1373	$2,400	$1.75	44d	1	1.10mi
619 Summit Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,200	$1.84	24d	1	1.14mi
40051 Forest Rd #2 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,575	$1.97	44d	1	1.18mi
41935 Switzerland Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	18d	1	1.26mi
41935 Switzerland Dr #58 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1053	$1,750	$1.66	24d	1	1.31mi
39873 Forest Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $159,900 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Welcome to Big Bear Mobile Estates, a great opportunity to own in a well-established mobile home community right in the heart of Big Bear. Centrally located and conveniently walkable to the Village, the lake, restaurants, and local shops, this home puts you close to everything Big Bear has to offer. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, a practical kitchen and dining area, and well-sized bedrooms—ideal for full-time living or a low-maintenance mountain retreat. Enjoy the ease of community living with the added benefit of an unbeatable location. Park approval is required. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, and any community guidelines. Don’t miss your chance to own in one of Big Bear’s most convenient locations—schedule your showing today.

16. 2026-01-19
    listed $179,900 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Welcome to Big Bear Mobile Estates, a great opportunity to own in a well-established mobile home community right in the heart of Big Bear. Centrally located and conveniently walkable to the Village, the lake, restaurants, and local shops, this home puts you close to everything Big Bear has to offer. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living space, a practical kitchen and dining area, and well-sized bedrooms—ideal for full-time living or a low-maintenance mountain retreat. Enjoy the ease of community living with the added benefit of an unbeatable location. Park approval is required. Buyer to verify space rent, park rules, and any community guidelines. Don’t miss your chance to own in one of Big Bear’s most convenient locations—schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 128.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $5,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $6,787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $159,900 MRCAOR
• 2026-01-19 Listed $179,900 MRCAOR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.