PIMA Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$209,449

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Broadview Collection offers new single-family homes for sale at a great value in the Rancho Del Cielo masterplan in Jarrell, TX. Onsite amenities include a swimming pool, basketball court, splash park, pocket parks and green spaces for recreational fun. The community is also located near University Oaks, Berry Springs Park and Preserve, Wolf Ranch Town Center and just 10 miles from downtown Georgetown for even more shopping, dining and entertainment options. With easy access to I-35, residents can also enjoy short commutes to major employment opportunities.

Key facts

• Pocket parks
• Swimming pool
• Splash park

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• SPLASH PARK
• POCKET PARKS
• GREEN SPACES
• EASY ACCESS TO I-35

🏗️ New construction. The $209,449 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $211,114.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,482 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,114
• List price: $209,449
• Delta: -0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Jones Beach Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	2mo	$195,999	$145	91
309 Kings Row Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	2mo	$205,499	$152	90
464 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	1mo	$209,149	$148	83
219 Louisa Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-0%)	1mo	$204,749	$151	80
548 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	1mo	$215,000	$153	80
522 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+12%)	3mo	$196,999	$130	76
515 Mccloud Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-12%)	2mo	$164,999	$138	75
224 Louisa Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	0mo	$208,149	$148	74
513 Texas Angel Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	3mo	$239,990	$170	74
220 Louisa Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	0mo	$210,149	$149	73
523 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	3mo	$203,999	$133	69
112 Hasty Heart Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	3mo	$219,990	$147	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-44,901
• Equity at exit: $31,478

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-65,894
• Equity at exit: $18,253

Cash invested: $59,112 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 72 active · 58 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.6 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $205,724 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,167/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $198,315

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-16	+0% $-88	+5% $-161	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-157	+0% $-88	+5% $-20	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-35	base $-88	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,778
• Closing costs: $6,333
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	108d	1	0.03mi
124 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	87d	1	0.07mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	164d	1	0.07mi
101 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,450	$1.02	69d	1	0.08mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	161d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	145d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	184d	1	0.08mi
511 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1692	$1,725	$1.02	45d	1	0.11mi
511 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	1692	$1,725	$1.02	36d	1	0.11mi
136 Jack Browning Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	69d	1	0.13mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	139d	1	0.16mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	133d	1	0.16mi
505 Sergeant Murphy Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	87d	1	0.19mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	184d	1	0.20mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	10d	1	0.21mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	36d	1	0.21mi
125 Cattle Queen Rd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,600	$1.14	1d	1	0.23mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	155d	1	0.23mi
256 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,545	$1.07	69d	1	0.25mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	184d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	143d	1	0.27mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	184d	1	0.28mi
408 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	69d	1	0.32mi
117 Dark Victory Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	10d	1	0.32mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	125d	1	0.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 112 The Gipper, Jarrell TX 76537
• Financial info: List price $209,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (PIMA)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1360

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan PIMA (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $209,449 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $209,449 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $209,449 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $209,449 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $209,449 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $209,249 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $208,999 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $208,999 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $208,999 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $208,999 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $208,999 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $208,999 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $208,999 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $208,999 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    pricedays on market $208,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $210,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $210,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $210,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $210,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $210,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $210,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $210,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $210,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $210,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $210,999 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $210,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $210,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $210,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $210,999 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $210,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $210,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $210,999 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $210,999 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $210,999 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $210,999 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $210,999 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $210,999 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $210,999 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $210,999 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $210,999 Active 127 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $210,999 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $210,999 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $210,999 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $210,999 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $210,999 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $210,999 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $210,999 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $210,999 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $210,999 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $210,999 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,826
• − Property taxes: −$3,167
• − Insurance: −$1,056
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$6,141
• Taxable loss: −$4,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $67/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Jarrell, TX is new and move-in ready, featuring modern amenities and convenient access to local attractions and employment opportunities.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 112 The Gipper, Jarrell TX 76537
• Financial info: List price $209,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (PIMA)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1360

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan PIMA (new construction)