24215 Norchester Way · The Woodlands, TX 77389

$300,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1973 0.34 ac lot Est $376k · 20% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Northampton home with a great layout ready for you to make it your own. Primary bedroom on the first floor, upstairs has 3 bedrooms and a Jack and Jill bath. In the backyard you can enjoy the refreshing pool and shade from the trees to give the back yard a secluded feel.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Northampton HOA SBB with $400 annual fee (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-family design; Built in 1973; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool with vinyl liner; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 14); Bedroom on the second floor (12 x 12); Bedroom on the second floor (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Hollywood bath; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northampton El (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 685 students, 50% FRL); Hildebrandt Int (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,046 students, 53% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,689 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,002
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6306 Meadowtrace Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,560 (+10%)	6mo	$409,900	$160	65
6214 Jadecrest Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,632 (+13%)	2mo	$389,000	$148	63
6107 Jadecrest Ct	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,131 (-8%)	4mo	$297,500	$140	62
6219 Fawnwood Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,177 (-6%)	6mo	$330,000	$152	57
6510 Knollview Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,610 (+12%)	4mo	$395,000	$151	57
5935 Dovershire Knoll Ct	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,038 (-12%)	2mo	$465,000	$228	55
25051 Bow Wood Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,384 (+3%)	1mo	$485,000	$203	52
6523 Fawnwood Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,529 (+9%)	5mo	$435,900	$172	51
6319 Holden Mills Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,216 (-4%)	2mo	$349,999	$158	46
6115 Elmgrove Rd	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,013 (-13%)	1mo	$400,000	$199	45
5627 Mesquite Oaks Trl	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,065 (-11%)	3mo	$335,000	$162	44
6211 Darby Way	0.66mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,596 (+12%)	2mo	$469,000	$181	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,745
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,007
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,897/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,814

Max offer price $293,495

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $48	+0% $-37	+5% $-122	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-146	+0% $-37	+5% $72	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $39	base $-37	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Mesquite Oaks Trl Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	13d	1	0.72mi
5730 Blue Harvest DR The Woodlands, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1660	$3,391	$2.04	0d	95	0.96mi
4702 Preserve Park Dr Unit SF10K2 Spring, TX	4.0	3.0	2647	$2,600	$0.98	45d	1	1.28mi
4814 Preserve Creek Ct Unit 1 Spring, TX	4.0	4.0	3250	$3,395	$1.04	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Pending 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $300,000 Pending 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 271-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $300,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,897 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,897 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,897
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,897 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.