2429 Begonia St · Mascotte, FL 34753

$394,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2021 10,083 sqft lot $62/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

* * This house comes with a REDUCED RATE through the seller's preferred lender. This is a lender-paid rate buydown that reduces the buyer's interest rate and monthly payment. * * Beautiful move-in ready home built in 2021, situated on a premium lot with no rear neighbors in the highly desirable Lake Jackson Ridge community. This tastefully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers 2,334 square feet of living space, a 2-car garage, and shows like a model home. From the moment you arrive, you’ll appreciate the exceptional curb appeal featuring manicured landscaping and an elegant stone-accented front elevation. Inside, the thoughtfully designed open floor plan showcases volume ceil

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Empire Management Group; Association fees required — $187.50 quarterly (approx. $62.50/month); Community sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; French doors; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Landscaped yard; Paved lot/driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Blinds and drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen and separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-684 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,025 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $171,090
• Equity at exit: $354,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $538,210
• Equity at exit: $765,455

Cash invested: $110,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34753

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,066
• Tax from tax record: −$469 /mo · $5,633/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,496

Max offer price $273,190

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,500
• Closing costs: $11,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2425 Begonia St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,350	$1.19	23d	1	0.03mi
1665 Luft Ln Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,030	$1.21	23d	1	0.37mi
1126 Union Ave Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,265	$1.14	23d	1	0.40mi
1676 Gopher Tree St Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,285	$1.15	4d	1	0.54mi
1864 Piedmont Ct Mascotte, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,290	$1.15	23d	1	0.66mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	23d	1	1.38mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	4d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $394,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $394,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $394,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $394,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $394,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $394,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $394,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $394,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $394,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,633 · $469/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,633 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,070
• − Property taxes: −$5,633
• − Insurance: −$1,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$11,462
• Taxable loss: −$15,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,985
• Household income: $83,868
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.01%
• Current HPI: 281.96
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $394,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,633 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.