92-9092 Tree Fern Ln · Hawaiian Ocean View, HI 96737

$149,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Situated in Hawaiian Ocean View Estates on an acre lot, this home is awaiting touches to call it your own special piece of paradise.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 75 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Not used as a short-term vacation rental

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank; Catchment water; County solid waste disposal (no charge)
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Zoned A-1A
• Exterior features: Level topography; Cleared lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (all full)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hawaiian Ocean View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#151 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $150k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $140,953 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.15%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $112,102
• Equity at exit: $67,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $267,607
• Equity at exit: $103,908

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96737

• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,401/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $1,475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92-9039 Ginger Blossom Ln Captain Cook, HI	3.0	2.0	1872	$3,300	$1.76	44d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,950 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,950 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,950 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,950 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,950 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,950 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,950 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,950 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,950 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,950 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,950 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,950 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,950 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,401 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,401 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$3,401
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $16,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,924
• After-tax cash flow: $13,773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Hawaiian Ocean View

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #26127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawaiian Ocean View, HI
• City population: 3,781
• Population (ZIP): 3,781

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.81)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 42% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 6% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Hispanic 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 10% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $149,950 HI Information Service
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $154,950 HI Information Service
• 2026-03-09 Listed $164,950 HI Information Service
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $174,950 HI Information Service
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $189,950 HI Information Service
• 2025-11-17 Listed $199,950 HI Information Service
• 1994-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,401 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.