17360 NE 37th Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 34488

$72,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1983 $62/sqft · 47% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1296 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 17360 NE 37th Ln, Silver Springs, FL 34488.

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fort Mccoy School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 964 students, 73% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $72k implies a 387% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,325 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.39%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,128
• List price: $72,500
• Delta: -52.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3952 NE 171st Ter	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	8mo	$164,900	$143	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $33,931
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $88,378
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34488

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $723/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $738	+0% $717	+5% $697	+10% $676
Rent	-10% $598	-5% $658	+0% $717	+5% $777	+10% $836
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $736	base $717	+0.5pp $698	+1.0pp $679

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $72,500 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,500 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,500 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,500 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $72,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,500 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,500 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,500 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,500 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,500 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,500 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $72,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $70,000 142-char remark
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $72,500 Active 142-char remark
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $72,500 Active 142-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    historical
20. 2026-03-06
    price $73,500
21. 2026-02-25
    price $74,500
22. 2026-02-10
    price $75,500
23. 2026-01-29
    price $76,500
24. 2025-12-08
    price $77,000
25. 2025-11-14
    listed $79,000 Active
26. 1994-06-07
    soldstatus $14,900
27. 1992-12-01
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$723
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $7,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,896
• After-tax cash flow: $6,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,525

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 227.3763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+278.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $70,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-06 Listed $72,500 Fizber.com
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $73,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $74,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $75,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $76,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $77,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $14,900 Public Records
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $723 · +38.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.