634 E 38th St · Erie, PA 16504

$171,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1952 7,410 sqft lot Est $240k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate & Great Opportunity With City Certified 2Nd Floor In-Law Eff. Apt. Finished Ll With Br, Fr, Workshop, Laundry, Freshly Painted. 2 Car Garage & Carport. Updates: Windows, Furnace, A/C '13, H2O Tank And Roof '06.. Great Location & Lot!

Key facts

• 7,410 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1952

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1; Lot dimensions: 57 x 130 (0.1701 acres)
• Financial info: Unit 1 actual rent: $1,500; Unit 2 actual rent: $1,350

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; One level
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms; Unit 2: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: Unit 1: 2 bathrooms; Unit 2: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement tenant use; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in both units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $172k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.95%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1024 E 43rd St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,253 (+4%)	2mo	$150,000	$67	56
846 E 41st St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,980 (-8%)	6mo	$220,000	$111	55
136 E 38 St	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,146 (-1%)	14mo	$150,000	$70	53
846 E 33rd St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,875 (-13%)	0mo	$224,900	$120	51
2810 Perry St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,960 (-9%)	2mo	$200,000	$102	51
217 Maiden Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (-3%)	16mo	$150,000	$71	46
3025 Old French Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,859 (-14%)	6mo	$157,500	$85	43
636 E Grandview Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (-13%)	10mo	$299,900	$159	40
822 E Grandview Blvd	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,896 (-12%)	10mo	$290,000	$153	37
1142 E 34th St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,900 (-12%)	3mo	$212,000	$112	36
4331 Briggs Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (-15%)	17mo	$219,900	$120	35
155 E 35th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,850 (-14%)	12mo	$170,000	$92	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,112
• Equity at exit: $25,631

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $75,252
• Equity at exit: $14,863

Cash invested: $48,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$901
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,880/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $171,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,975
• Closing costs: $5,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	0.95mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $171,900 Active
2. 2021-07-30
   soldstatus $145,000
3. 2013-11-27
   soldstatus $130,000
4. 2013-11-26
   soldstatus $130,000 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Immaculate & Great Opportunity With City Certified 2Nd Floor In-Law Eff. Apt. Finished Ll With Br, Fr, Workshop, Laundry, Freshly Painted. 2 Car Garage & Carport. Updates: Windows, Furnace, A/C '13, H2O Tank And Roof '06.. Great Location & Lot!

5. 2013-10-21
   listed $135,000 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Immaculate & Great Opportunity With City Certified 2Nd Floor In-Law Eff. Apt. Finished Ll With Br, Fr, Workshop, Laundry, Freshly Painted. 2 Car Garage & Carport. Updates: Windows, Furnace, A/C '13, H2O Tank And Roof '06.. Great Location & Lot!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,629
• − Property taxes: −$3,880
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,450
• − Management: −$2,450
• − Depreciation: −$5,001
• Taxable income: $6,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $7,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $171,900 GEBOR
• 2021-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-26 Sold (MLS) $130,000 GEBOR
• 2013-10-21 Listed $135,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,880 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.