574 Highland Ranch Way · Mustang Ridge, TX 78616

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2014 1.00 ac lot $178/sqft · 41% below area Est $634k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just minutes from Lockhart and an easy drive to Austin, this custom-built home in Dale, TX offers the perfect balance of convenience and country living. Set on a full 1-acre lot with no restrictions, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also includes a dedicated office or study, giving you the flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, light-filled layout with a welcoming living area and a kitchen designed for everyday living and gathering. The primary suite provides a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms and office offer space for family, guests, or working from home. Step outside and enjoy the open space, ideal for animals, projects, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. With no HOA, you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Enjoy peaceful country living without sacrificing convenience, this one truly feels like home.

Key facts

• Kitchen with space
• Full 1-acre lot
• Natural light

Tags

• FULL 1-ACRE LOT
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WELCOMING LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH SPACE
• QUIET RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-760 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,715 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $634,431
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -40.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $155,840
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $497,048
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,259

Max offer price $240,701

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-548	-5% $-654	+0% $-760	+5% $-866	+10% $-973
Rent	-10% $-942	-5% $-851	+0% $-760	+5% $-669	+10% $-579
Rate	-1.0pp $-571	-0.5pp $-665	base $-760	+0.5pp $-857	+1.0pp $-956

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $375,000 Active 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Located just minutes from Lockhart and an easy drive to Austin, this custom-built home in Dale, TX offers the perfect balance of convenience and country living. Set on a full 1-acre lot with no restrictions, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also includes a dedicated office or study, giving you the flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, light-filled layout with a welcoming living area and a kitchen designed for everyday living and gathering. The primary suite provides a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms and office offer space for family, guests, or working from home. Step outside and enjoy the open space, ideal for animals, projects, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. With no HOA, you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Enjoy peaceful country living without sacrificing convenience, this one truly feels like home.

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $375,000 Active 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Located just minutes from Lockhart and an easy drive to Austin, this custom-built home in Dale, TX offers the perfect balance of convenience and country living. Set on a full 1-acre lot with no restrictions, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also includes a dedicated office or study, giving you the flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, light-filled layout with a welcoming living area and a kitchen designed for everyday living and gathering. The primary suite provides a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms and office offer space for family, guests, or working from home. Step outside and enjoy the open space, ideal for animals, projects, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. With no HOA, you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Enjoy peaceful country living without sacrificing convenience, this one truly feels like home.

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $375,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    Located just minutes from Lockhart and an easy drive to Austin, this custom-built home in Dale, TX offers the perfect balance of convenience and country living. Set on a full 1-acre lot with no restrictions, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also includes a dedicated office or study, giving you the flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable, light-filled layout with a welcoming living area and a kitchen designed for everyday living and gathering. The primary suite provides a quiet retreat, while the additional bedrooms and office offer space for family, guests, or working from home. Step outside and enjoy the open space, ideal for animals, projects, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. With no HOA, you have the freedom to truly make it your own. Enjoy peaceful country living without sacrificing convenience, this one truly feels like home.

18. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus
19. 2022-07-14
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2022-06-27
    status Pending
21. 2022-06-09
    listed $398,900 Active
22. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus
23. 2017-11-09
    soldstatus
24. 2017-11-08
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2017-09-21
    status Pending - Taking Backups
26. 2017-09-14
    price $210,000
27. 2017-08-05
    listed $220,000 Active
28. 2017-07-24
    historical Temporarily Off Market
29. 2017-06-27
    price
30. 2017-06-02
    price
31. 2017-05-25
    price
32. 2017-04-26
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,426 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,862 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,436/yr (+$120/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,426
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$16,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $375,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $375,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-09 Listed $398,900 Unlock MLS
• 2018-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-11-08 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2017-09-21 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2017-09-14 Price Changed $210,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-08-05 Listed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-07-24 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2017-06-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2017-06-02 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2017-05-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2017-04-26 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+28.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,426 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.