6434 Christopher Dr · Oakville, MO 63129

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1930 0.71 ac lot $113/sqft · 39% below area Est $337k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious ranch-style home situated on an above-average sized lot in an area surrounded by higher-priced properties—offering exceptional potential for the right buyer. The home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout, providing a solid starting point for a renovation. This one will require some work; bring your vision and contractors. Property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is, with no warranties or representations of any kind by seller or listing broker. Auction Dates 5/18/2026 - 5/20/2026

Key facts

• 0.71 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Oakville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#158 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,240
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -49.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6515 Christopher Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,531 (+2%)	13mo	$375,000	$245	75
6520 Galewood Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,457 (-3%)	0mo	$310,000	$213	53
6200 Whisper Bend Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+7%)	20mo	$469,900	$292	52
6540 Towne Woods Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,626 (+8%)	0mo	$325,000	$200	50
171 Tori Pines Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-1%)	8mo	$345,000	$232	48
166 Tori Pines Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-4%)	9mo	$365,000	$253	44
6534 Thornhurst Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-10%)	11mo	$299,999	$222	42
2638 Cliffwood Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	19mo	$279,900	$211	42
2615 Cliffwood Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	21mo	$289,900	$219	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,650
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,014
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63129

• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,153/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 510-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 509-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $179,900 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Spacious ranch-style home situated on an above-average sized lot in an area surrounded by higher-priced properties—offering exceptional potential for the right buyer. The home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout, providing a solid starting point for a renovation. This one will require some work; bring your vision and contractors. Property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is, with no warranties or representations of any kind by seller or listing broker. Auction Dates 5/18/2026 - 5/20/2026

16. 2026-03-26
    listed $189,900 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Spacious ranch-style home situated on an above-average sized lot in an area surrounded by higher-priced properties—offering exceptional potential for the right buyer. The home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout, providing a solid starting point for a renovation. This one will require some work; bring your vision and contractors. Property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is, with no warranties or representations of any kind by seller or listing broker. Auction Dates 5/18/2026 - 5/20/2026

17. 2026-03-26
    historical $189,900 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Spacious ranch-style home situated on an above-average sized lot in an area surrounded by higher-priced properties—offering exceptional potential for the right buyer. The home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout, providing a solid starting point for a renovation. This one will require some work; bring your vision and contractors. Property is being sold strictly as-is, where-is, with no warranties or representations of any kind by seller or listing broker. Auction Dates 5/18/2026 - 5/20/2026

18. 2013-09-25
    soldstatus $178,000
19. 2010-08-03
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 1965-12-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,153
• − Insurance: −$1,516
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $1,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Oakville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #8790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 51,553
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,553
• Household income: $94,888
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 743.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% American 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.14%
• Current HPI: 208.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+49.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Coming Soon $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1965-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,153 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.