4012 30th St · Meridian, MS 39307

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1976 6,660 sqft lot $75/sqft · 47% above area Est $65k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD home for sale, as is. New homes available every Friday. This home is not FHA Insurable. FHA# 281-244616. Septic tank. Call your realtor to view or place a bid.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• Updated lighting

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (room-level details not provided)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Electric range; Range; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#141 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Meridian Public Schools (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #109 of 130 in MS (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Hills Elementary School (math 6% / reading 21%, grade F, #292 of 375 statewide, top 78%, 478 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Junior High School (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #129 of 179 statewide, top 73%, 566 students, 100% FRL); Meridian High School (math 17% / reading 15%, grade F, #145 of 197 statewide, top 74%, 1,301 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 85% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lauderdale County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.82%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,517
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 47.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2718 State Blvd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-3%)	8mo	$65,000	$53	58
3809 35th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+9%)	21mo	$39,500	$29	47
2010 39th Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,316 (+4%)	20mo	$11,000	$8	38
2511 33rd Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,426 (+13%)	15mo	$24,900	$17	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,159
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $43,848
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39307

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $631/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $444	+0% $417	+5% $390	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $367	+0% $417	+5% $468	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $441	base $417	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2619 17th St Meridian, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	1.29mi
1426 50th Ave Meridian, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,325	$0.83	45d	1	1.32mi
3315 N Hills St Meridian, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	45d	8	1.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $95,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $97,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,500 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $97,500 417-char remark
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $99,900 Active 417-char remark
20. 2003-10-17
    soldstatus 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    HUD home for sale, as is. New homes available every Friday. This home is not FHA Insurable. FHA# 281-244616. Septic tank. Call your realtor to view or place a bid.

21. 2003-08-22
    listed $42,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    HUD home for sale, as is. New homes available every Friday. This home is not FHA Insurable. FHA# 281-244616. Septic tank. Call your realtor to view or place a bid.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$631
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$880
• After-tax cash flow: $4,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2802910
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,236
• Composite: 11.87/100
• National rank: #9673
• State rank: #109 of 130 in MS

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #14839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, MS
• City population: 42,445
• Population (ZIP): 15,636

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,158 people
• By 2030: 72,770 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,309 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 61,797 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 49,790 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 39,797 · -47.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% White 26% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+16.0 2016: R+23.0 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.34%
• Current HPI: 121.0078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+126.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $95,000 EMR
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — EMR
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $97,000 EMR
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — EMR
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $97,500 EMR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $99,900 EMR
• 2003-10-17 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2003-08-22 Listed $42,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $631 · -64.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.