339 Camellia Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Land · 503 Days on market

Built 2017 0.36 ac lot $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Property Sold AS-IS, House will not be finished, Home located in Poinciana Villages. Great Lay-out, 3 Bedroom/2bathroom and over 1500 SQFT.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2017

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.36 acres (about 1,459 m²); Road surfaces: Asphalt and concrete; Zoning: PUD; Farm type listed: Chicken; Living area and building area reported in public records; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association of Poinciana Villages; HOA required with annual fee of $260 (about $21.67/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing southeast; Property condition: Fixer; New construction
• Construction: Stucco and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed; Other heating/cooling noted
• Interior features: Concrete floors; No listed interior appliances
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 503 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $220k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 503 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-24,513
• Equity at exit: $48,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,815
• Equity at exit: $46,352

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $81	+0% $5	+5% $-71	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-72	+0% $5	+5% $82	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $61	base $5	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	0.18mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	3d	1	0.21mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	4d	1	0.21mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	24d	1	0.22mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	4d	1	0.22mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	24d	1	0.25mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	15d	1	0.28mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.28mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	4d	1	0.29mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	15d	1	0.30mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	3d	1	0.30mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.32mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.32mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	24d	1	0.33mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	15d	1	0.38mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	12d	1	0.39mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	15d	1	0.39mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	4d	1	0.39mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	14d	1	0.42mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	4d	1	0.42mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	4d	1	0.45mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	24d	1	0.45mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	4d	1	0.46mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	0.47mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	4d	1	0.48mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	4d	1	0.49mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	15d	1	0.49mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	4d	1	0.49mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	24d	1	0.51mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	3d	1	0.51mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	4d	1	0.51mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	24d	1	0.52mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	24d	1	0.54mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	12d	1	0.55mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	24d	1	0.58mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	4d	1	0.58mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	4d	1	0.59mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	4d	1	0.60mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	4d	1	0.60mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 503 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 502 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 501 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 500 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 498 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 495 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 494 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 493 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 492 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 489 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 487 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 486 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 485 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $220,000
15. 2025-06-05
    price $225,000
16. 2025-01-31
    listed $229,900 Active
17. 2022-10-03
    historical
18. 2022-09-01
    listed $199,900 Active
19. 2018-10-01
    historical
20. 2018-08-13
    price $149,900
21. 2018-07-16
    listed $159,900 Active
22. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $85,000
23. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2017-06-09
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold
25. 2017-05-15
    status Pending
26. 2017-05-03
    listed $15,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$875
• After-tax cash flow: $934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1279.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-13 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-16 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $18,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-03 Listed $15,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+22.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.