14390 W Highway 102 Hwy · Centerton, AR 72736

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

1.17 ac lot $212/sqft · 20% below area Est $440k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Surveyed 1.7 acres with log cabin vibes. Hard surfaced floors throughout. Open kitchen to living. 3cm granite counters, stainless steel appliances including double ovens and six burner propane range. Wet bar with ice maker and wine cooler. Lots of cabinet space, pantry, dedicated laundry room. Big closets. Wrap around deck with two covered spaces. Less than 10 miles down Hwy 102 from Walton Blvd. Copy of recent survey available.

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Double ovens
• Granite counters

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN TO LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE OVENS
• SIX BURNER PROPANE RANGE
• WET BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-708 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (50.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (50.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.9% in Centerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#11 in AR, #3,194 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Decatur School District (rural): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #163 of 238 in AR (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Decatur Northside Elementary (math 52% / reading 27%, grade F, #206 of 454 statewide, top 48%, 271 students, 100% FRL); Decatur Middle School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #133 of 201 statewide, top 66%, 177 students, 100% FRL); Decatur High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #269 of 292 statewide, top 92%, 171 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $241k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,660 (50.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.67%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 16.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,721
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -20.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $145,283
• Equity at exit: $315,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $462,927
• Equity at exit: $679,779

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72736

• Home prices YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 16.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $224,824

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-510	-5% $-609	+0% $-708	+5% $-807	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-844	-5% $-776	+0% $-708	+5% $-640	+10% $-572
Rate	-1.0pp $-532	-0.5pp $-619	base $-708	+0.5pp $-799	+1.0pp $-891

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $349,900 Pending 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $349,900 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Surveyed 1.7 acres with log cabin vibes. Hard surfaced floors throughout. Open kitchen to living. 3cm granite counters, stainless steel appliances including double ovens and six burner propane range. Wet bar with ice maker and wine cooler. Lots of cabinet space, pantry, dedicated laundry room. Big closets. Wrap around deck with two covered spaces. Less than 10 miles down Hwy 102 from Walton Blvd. Copy of recent survey available.

19. 2026-03-25
    listed $375,000 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Surveyed 1.7 acres with log cabin vibes. Hard surfaced floors throughout. Open kitchen to living. 3cm granite counters, stainless steel appliances including double ovens and six burner propane range. Wet bar with ice maker and wine cooler. Lots of cabinet space, pantry, dedicated laundry room. Big closets. Wrap around deck with two covered spaces. Less than 10 miles down Hwy 102 from Walton Blvd. Copy of recent survey available.

20. 2025-05-15
    soldstatus $241,150
21. 2009-01-09
    soldstatus $101,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,239 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,143/yr (+$95/mo · 104.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$15,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur School District
• NCES district ID: 0504980
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,201
• Composite: 23.69/100
• National rank: #7833
• State rank: #163 of 238 in AR

Livability — Centerton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,701
• Population (ZIP): 7,519

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.16%
• Current HPI: 508.2507
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+246.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $349,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $375,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $241,150 Public Records
• 2009-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · -53.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.