407 N Hillman Ave · Okmulgee, OK 74447

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1970 6,499 sqft lot Est $125k · 8% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the community-oriented Golden Hill subdivision of Okmulgee. Relax on the enclosed front porch or enjoy the versatile large shed, perfect for a greenhouse, workout room, or extra storage. The garage has been converted into a private master suite for added comfort. Kitchen updates include new countertops, sink, and hardware, while the bathrooms feature updated vanities, sinks, and hardware. With plenty of space and thoughtful updates, this home is the perfect fit for a large family in a welcoming neighborhood. Schedule a showing today and see why this could be your family’s next home.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Versatile large shed
• Kitchen updates

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• VERSATILE LARGE SHED
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• KITCHEN UPDATES
• UPDATED VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gutter(s) noted as community feature

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Handicap accessible; Faces southeast; Entry level on first floor
• Construction: Brick and wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rain gutters; Covered and enclosed patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Greenhouse; Storage; Partial privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Oven; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first floor; Master bedroom on the first floor with private bath and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with shower (first floor); Hall bath (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames; Storm doors; Accessible approach with ramp; High ceilings; Laminate counters; Ceiling fan(s); Gas range connection
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#300 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Okmulgee (town): math 3% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #264 of 270 in OK (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Okmulgee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okmulgee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1501 E 8th St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,438 (-6%)	12mo	$125,500	$87	66
1313 E 11th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-2%)	6mo	$165,000	$110	61
503 N Prairie Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-14%)	10mo	$95,000	$72	55
1420 E 8th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	7mo	$160,000	$119	54
1615 A And M Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,312 (-14%)	13mo	$35,000	$27	50
532 S Liberty Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,376 (-10%)	8mo	$57,000	$41	48
1327 E 10th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	6mo	$140,000	$82	48
526 Cedar Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+6%)	13mo	$80,000	$49	47
512 S Woodlawn Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (-12%)	8mo	$88,000	$65	43
1908 E 10th St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-6%)	10mo	$160,000	$112	43
1724 E Hayes St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (+9%)	5mo	$13,000	$8	41
1218 E 7th St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,746 (+14%)	12mo	$185,000	$106	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,460
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $20,562
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74447

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $783/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $134,900
3. 2026-03-13
   status Active
4. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $139,900 Active
6. 2025-09-10
   historical
7. 2025-08-12
   price $120,000
8. 2025-03-10
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$783
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$320
• After-tax cash flow: $3,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okmulgee
• NCES district ID: 4022800
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,078
• Composite: 3.66/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #264 of 270 in OK

Livability — Okmulgee

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #17773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Okmulgee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 15,500

Population outlook (Okmulgee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,543 people
• By 2030: 36,528 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 34,430 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 32,498 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 28,814 · -23.3%
• By 2100: 25,193 · -32.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Native American 15% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okmulgee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.7) · D 27.7% · R 70.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.0pp · 2024: -42.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+32.7 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.69%
• Current HPI: 257.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $134,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-04 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-13 Listed $139,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $120,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-03-10 Listed $140,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $783 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.