23 Mountain Laurel Dr · Palm Harbor, FL 34684

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1980 4,748 sqft lot Est $210k · 14% under $230/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Blue Jay Estates, one of Palm Harbor’s most sought-after 55+ resident-owned communities! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort, space, and an active lifestyle all in one. New HVAC (2026) and new electrical panel will be installed before closing. The primary suite features a spacious en-suite bathroom with both a bath and separate shower, along with a walk-in closet. Enjoy an updated kitchen, dedicated laundry room, and plenty of room to relax or entertain. Outside, you’ll find a 2-car carport, screened-in lanai perfect for enjoying Florida’s beautiful weather, and a convenient built-in shed for extra storage. Blue Jay Estates offers fa

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Built-in shed
• Screened-in lanai

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• BUILT-IN SHED
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.11 acres; Asphalt road access; Living area about 1,577 square feet; Building area about 2,357 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Curlew Mobile Home Estates Association; HOA required with monthly fee of $230; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number and size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Home faces east; Homestead property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Porch (screened); Shed(s); Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 377 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $180k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.45%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,741
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Maple Leaf Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	4mo	$187,500	$129	74
162 Hickory Gate Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-7%)	8mo	$195,000	$133	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,981
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,820
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34684

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 377
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,655

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $751	-5% $700	+0% $649	+5% $598	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $453	-5% $551	+0% $649	+5% $747	+10% $845
Rate	-1.0pp $740	-0.5pp $695	base $649	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
762 Barbara St Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1146	$2,200	$1.92	25d	1	0.12mi
3662 Chatham Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$3,400	$1.82	25d	1	0.28mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	0.35mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	0.35mi
2879 Thaxton Dr #55 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$2,200	$1.58	5d	1	0.41mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	25d	1	0.42mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	14d	1	0.42mi
3726 Albion Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,350	$2.22	15d	1	0.42mi
2897 Thaxton Dr #65 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,280	$1.64	5d	1	0.43mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	25d	1	0.48mi
3751 Mackenzie Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,650	$2.28	3d	1	0.48mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	8d	1	0.51mi
692 Bellingham Pl Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,800	$2.12	5d	1	0.52mi
3775 Springhill Cir Palm Harbor, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$5,000	$2.97	5d	1	0.53mi
3781 Lake Shore Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$2,500	$2.37	25d	1	0.54mi
650 Bellingham Pl Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,200	$2.42	5d	1	0.56mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	16d	1	0.64mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	19d	1	0.64mi
2764 Kavalier Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,300	$2.11	25d	1	0.64mi
2803 Northcote Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,300	$2.19	23d	1	0.72mi
2705 5th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	5d	1	0.85mi
4907 Parson Brown Ln Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1947	$4,500	$2.31	5d	1	0.88mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	25d	1	0.90mi
3235 Buckhorn Dr Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$3,500	$2.26	5d	1	0.90mi
2607 6th Ct Unit 1 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,795	$1.34	25d	1	0.91mi
2712 14th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,050	$1.53	25d	1	0.95mi
220 Calibre Downs Ln Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$2,299	$2.19	25d	13	0.97mi
2652 Concorde Ct Clearwater, FL	4.0	2.0	1878	$4,000	$2.13	5d	1	0.98mi
2605 10th Ct Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1344	$1,950	$1.45	25d	1	0.99mi
2379 Azalea Dr Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	2035	$3,700	$1.82	23d	1	1.06mi
4000 Poinciana Ct Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	4d	1	1.08mi
3326 Covered Bridge Dr W Dunedin, FL	2.0	2.5	1731	$2,675	$1.55	12d	1	1.12mi
373 Majesty Dr Unit 373 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	1.13mi
2700 Penzance St Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,200	$1.43	16d	1	1.25mi
248 St Ives Dr #248 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,300	$1.70	5d	1	1.25mi
2701 Penzance St Unit 2701 Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,095	$1.36	25d	1	1.28mi
2523 North Field Ln Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.5	1832	$2,850	$1.56	8d	1	1.34mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	25d	1	1.38mi
212 Katherine Blvd Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1164	$2,060	$1.77	3d	15	1.41mi
1350 Seagate Dr Palm Harbor, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,363	$2.26	2d	19	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-04-14
    listed $180,000 Active
14. 2010-09-01
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 113.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $5,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,267
• After-tax cash flow: $6,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Harbor

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 79,072
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,029
• Household income: $72,145
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1495.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.23%
• Current HPI: 301.651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+119.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $701 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.