104 Wilderness Rd · Rancho Cordova, CA 95670

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 790 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1969 $101/sqft · 28% above area Est $62k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the 55 and older gated community, Mobile Country Club in Rancho Cordova. Don't miss out on this fully renovated 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home. As you enter you are greeted by a spacious great room concept. The living room is complete with vaulted ceiling and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The kitchen has been updated with granite counter tops, modern cabinets and stainless steel appliances. The fenced in backyard has a covered patio area with raised bed planters to let your green thumb flourish and low maintenance artificial turf. The shed in the backyard provides extra storage. The awning has been extended to the backyard and gates off the side door provide secure access to

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fully renovated
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FULLY RENOVATED
• GREAT ROOM CONCEPT
• VAULTED CEILING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.00%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,406
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 28.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 97 Wilderness Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0	760 (-4%)	1mo	$59,000	$78	85
19 Golden Inn Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	816 (+3%)	10mo	$120,000	$147	83
117 Floral Hills Way	0.03mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (+1%)	11mo	$66,800	$84	78
318 Sunny Hills Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	1mo	$41,500	$58	76
249 Rocky Hills Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	800 (+1%)	24mo	$69,500	$87	75
18 Golden Inn Way	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	828 (+5%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	71
247 Rocky Hills Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	9mo	$72,000	$100	70
28 Golden Inn Way	0.06mi	2/1.0	700 (-11%)	8mo	$49,000	$70	67
134 Gumtree Dr	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (+8%)	9mo	$69,888	$82	65
245 Rocky Hills Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0	684 (-13%)	8mo	$54,888	$80	64
62 Pineacre Ln	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (+5%)	14mo	$48,888	$59	64
33 Sunbeam Way	0.11mi	2/1.0	870 (+10%)	19mo	$50,000	$57	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $49,394
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $112,304
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95670

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $1,044

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2220 Cemo Cir Gold River, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$2,499	$2.08	1d	7	0.39mi
11150 Trinity River Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1091	$1,850	$1.69	43d	2	0.39mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,225	$2.63	2d	1	0.42mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,230	$2.63	20d	9	0.42mi
11150 Trinity River Dr #79 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	941	$1,980	$2.10	23d	1	0.43mi
11260 Point East Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,985	$3.23	1d	29	0.47mi
2437 Rashawn Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	7d	1	0.48mi
11070 Hirschfeld Way Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,880	$2.35	2d	4	0.56mi
10890 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,499	$1.62	23d	3	0.84mi
10870 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	2d	1	0.93mi
1990 Benita Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$2,300	$2.40	43d	1	1.03mi
10922 Scotsman Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	17d	1	1.07mi
10780 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,515	$1.99	2d	7	1.08mi
2652 Los Nogales Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	43d	1	1.13mi
2657 McGregor Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,595	$1.58	43d	1	1.16mi
10680 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,889	$2.59	2d	11	1.32mi
2751 Don Juan Dr Apt 16 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,875	$1.95	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $11,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,872
• After-tax cash flow: $9,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,819
• Household income: $89,484
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2389.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 12% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.38%
• Current HPI: 300.0788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B