1718 W Manchester Dr · Pine Ridge, FL 34434

$289,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 10,117 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED! NO HOA • NO CDD • NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to this stunning modern-style home in the peaceful Citrus Springs community. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 beautifully designed bathrooms, this residence offers comfort and functionality for today’s lifestyle. The open-concept layout offers great entertaining and showcases a fully equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a large center island, and a generous walk-in pantry. Elegant granite surfaces extend to the bathrooms, while ceramic tile flooring throughout provides durability and easy maintenance. With 1,827 sq ft of heated living space (2,351 sq ft total), a 2-car garage, and

Key facts

• Large center island
• New construction
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction
• Construction: Stucco construction; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $290k implies a 1060% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,082 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-72,867
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-96,705
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $231,008

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1482 W Manchester Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,695	$1.10	20d	1	0.22mi
6251 W Whispering Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,815	$1.12	20d	1	0.32mi
2117 W Swanson Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	20d	1	0.42mi
669 W Homeway Loop Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	20d	1	0.71mi
2195 W Tall Oaks Dr Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,200	$1.30	20d	1	0.86mi
7175 N Varsity Ave Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,795	$1.26	20d	1	0.88mi
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	20d	1	1.07mi
5825 N Larkspur Way Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,300	$1.42	20d	1	1.23mi
1301 N Galgano St Dunnellon, FL	4.0	3.0	2381	$2,800	$1.18	20d	1	1.33mi
7047 N Lime Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	20d	1	1.35mi
1912 W Quaker Ln Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	20d	1	1.37mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	20d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $289,900 Active
3. 2026-03-16
   historical
4. 2026-02-26
   price $289,900
5. 2026-01-26
   price $294,900
6. 2025-12-18
   listed $309,900 Active
7. 2025-07-22
   soldstatus $25,000
8. 2005-12-21
   soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$10,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+882.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — RACC
• 2026-03-17 Listed $289,900 RACC
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $270 · +95.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.