2286 State Route 104 · Parish, NY 13131

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1890 1.96 ac lot Est $154k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* Multiple offer received-Seller is asking for Best & Final offers by 5pm Sunday 04/12/26 * Have you been looking for that large home with country charm and room to roam? Here it is!! Situated on 1.96 acres in the Mexico School district, less that 1 mile from Routes 11 & 81, this home offers 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. You enter the home into a large mudroom/multiuse room. So many possibilities here. .. home office, library, mudroom, pantry, sitting room, workout room. .. you choose! From there you will not believe the size of the dining room that opens to the living room on the front of the house and the huge country kitchen on the back of the house. Off of the kitchen is

Key facts

• Rebuilt main floor
• Large mudroom
• Huge country kitchen

Tags

• LARGE MUDROOM
• HUGE COUNTRY KITCHEN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED LAUNDRY
• ORIGINALLY BUILT IN 1890
• REBUILT MAIN FLOOR
• LARGER 2ND STORY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Septic tank sewer; Spring water source; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Shed(s) and additional storage; Irregular lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Heating noted as 'see remarks'
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Country-style kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Has basement (partial, dirt floor)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#976 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,882
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2286 State Route 104	0.00mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (0%)	0mo	$154,500	$83	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $88,197
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $254,798
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13131

• Home prices YoY: 32.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,395/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-05
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,395
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $1,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Parish

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #976
• US rank: #19100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,856

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 105.37%
• Current HPI: 432.386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $149,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,395 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.