2039 Lower Hopedale Rd · Burlington, NC 27217

$77,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1935 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do not enter small building at back of property and front left room. Floors are weak and some are failing. Property being sold As-Is. Must be sold in conjunction with adjacent lot-Parcel 141007 & 141003. Property has no deeded egress. The home does not have HVAC.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools F, crime F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.51%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1862 Dixon Swimming Pool Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,204 (-1%)	21mo	$175,000	$145	72
416 Hallie Long Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,218 (-0%)	2mo	$253,000	$208	68
2117 Carolina Mill Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,193 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$189	67
1947 Lower Hopedale Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,093 (-10%)	2mo	$177,500	$162	66
278 Christopher Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,097 (-10%)	17mo	$207,000	$189	46
2130 Carolina Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0	1,340 (+10%)	8mo	$230,000	$172	45
1450 Cross Country Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-13%)	23mo	$238,000	$225	41
509 Hallie Long Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,328 (+9%)	18mo	$242,500	$183	40
2110 Carolina Mill Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,050 (-14%)	12mo	$145,000	$138	38
129 Carriage Loop	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,394 (+14%)	6mo	$287,900	$207	38
1908 Nc Highway 62	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,396 (+14%)	9mo	$210,000	$150	30
1427 Duggins Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (-14%)	8mo	$216,000	$206	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $19,833
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $51,969
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27217

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,155/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Chandler Ave Burlington, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	13d	1	1.03mi
1055 Baldwin Ridge Rd Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,512	$1.48	13d	19	1.34mi
1900 Morningside Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,262	$1.17	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Do not enter small building at back of property and front left room. Floors are weak and some are failing. Property being sold As-Is. Must be sold in conjunction with adjacent lot-Parcel 141007 & 141003. Property has no deeded egress. The home does not have HVAC.

2. 2025-11-15
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Do not enter small building at back of property and front left room. Floors are weak and some are failing. Property being sold As-Is. Must be sold in conjunction with adjacent lot-Parcel 141007 & 141003. Property has no deeded egress. The home does not have HVAC.

3. 2025-11-06
   listed $77,000 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Do not enter small building at back of property and front left room. Floors are weak and some are failing. Property being sold As-Is. Must be sold in conjunction with adjacent lot-Parcel 141007 & 141003. Property has no deeded egress. The home does not have HVAC.

4. 2025-11-05
   listed $77,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$1,155
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $5,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $5,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 41,406
• Household income: $51,950
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.45%
• Current HPI: 259.8107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $77,000 Triad MLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $77,000 TMLS