Clay Plan · Graham, NC 27253

$304,990

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · MultiFamily · 42 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Clay, a thoughtfully designed duplex that offers comfort, functionality, and a seamless flow throughout each home. From the front porch, you enter into the foyer and pass two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath, along with a conveniently located laundry room. As you continue through the home, the layout opens into a spacious dining area, kitchen, and living room, creating a central space for gathering and everyday living. The kitchen features a pantry and easy access to the main living area, while a covered patio just off the living room extends your space outdoors. Tucked privately at the back of the home, the primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and a primary bat

Key facts

• Primary bath
• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIMARY BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric power; Central air
• Home design: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,455

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating and heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model named 'Clay'

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($578/yr) — positive. Per door: $24/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 395 active listings in the ZIP; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,729/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 879% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,900 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.68%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,311
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-36,207
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27253

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $304,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $154	+0% $48	+5% $-57	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-60	+0% $48	+5% $156	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $126	base $48	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-111

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$2,728
Total (2 units)			$2,729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,990 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,990 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,990 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,990 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,990 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,990 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $309,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $304,990 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,620
• − Management: −$2,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$4,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $1,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Clay Plan duplex is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Graham

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 33,114
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 33,114
• Household income: $62,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 879.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 16% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.91%
• Current HPI: 200.155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B