5248 Antigua Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$137,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1983 4,000 sqft lot Est $124k · 11% over $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Motivated seller is ready for the next owner of This beautifully updated, fully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in the Oaks Royal I & II active 55+ community, where you own the land and enjoy a low annual HOA fee of just $440.The updated kitchen features newer stainless steel appliances, updated fixtures, and a new sink. It opens directly to the living room, newly updated with laminate flooring, creating an easy, comfortable space for everyday living and entertaining. French doors lead to the Florida room, which has insulated walls and ceiling, thermal windows, laminate flooring, and a mini-split system. This makes it a true four-sea

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Thermal windows
• Florida room

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLORIDA ROOM
• INSULATED WALLS
• THERMAL WINDOWS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $440; about $36.67/month); Association requires approval; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse and recreational facilities; Association covers common area taxes; Community features: deed restrictions, street lights, golf carts OK, association-owned recreation; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; max pet weight ~40 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Attached property; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane and metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: French doors; Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Exterior storage / shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Mini-split unit(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $137k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.83%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,872
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36122 Aster Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	816 (+4%)	8mo	$115,000	$141	73
36413 Teakwood Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (+4%)	4mo	$159,000	$196	70
36312 Toranado Way	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	768 (-2%)	12mo	$120,000	$156	68
36029 Aster Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	13mo	$100,000	$130	68
5302 Montego Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	14mo	$123,000	$142	65
36416 Cordova Cir	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	1mo	$60,000	$89	61
5313 Aurora Dr	0.16mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-14%)	4mo	$66,000	$98	59
36037 Coleus Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	11mo	$136,500	$158	58
35934 Bueno Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	832 (+6%)	6mo	$145,000	$174	51
35921 Hermoso Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	5mo	$145,000	$168	48
4912 Dorado St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	888 (+13%)	2mo	$144,000	$162	46
36905 Kay Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	4mo	$148,500	$172	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,465
• Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $32,328
• Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $137,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,250
• Closing costs: $4,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	0.34mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.61mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.65mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	24d	1	0.68mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	21d	1	0.71mi
36009 Deer Creek Dr #104 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.72mi
36015 Deer Creek Dr #202 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,450	$1.37	24d	1	0.74mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.08mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	1d	142	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $137,000
3. 2026-03-11
   price $138,000
4. 2026-02-05
   price $140,000
5. 2026-01-01
   listed $145,000 Active
6. 2025-10-13
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-12
   historical
8. 2025-06-19
   listed $145,000 Active
9. 2024-10-03
   historical
10. 2024-04-03
    listed $179,000 Active
11. 2012-08-31
    soldstatus $30,000
12. 2012-08-31
    soldstatus $30,000
13. 2012-08-20
    listed $36,000
14. 2003-02-07
    soldstatus $31,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,674
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$3,985
• Taxable income: $4,965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $5,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+329.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $137,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-31 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-20 Listed $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $31,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,790 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.